In the face of rising prices for new cars in recent years, many buyers have preferred to go to the secondary market, where you can find a car for every pocket. As a result, this segment turned out to be quite resistant to the crisis: sales of used cars showed a decline only in 2015, and since then the demand for them has been steadily increasing. However, the rate of this growth is significantly lower than in the new car market, where it has been measured in double digits since last year. So, in 2017, Russians bought 5.3 million used cars - only 2.1% more than a year earlier. And although in quantitative terms the secondary car market is more than three times higher than the primary one, it can be stated that some consumers today are returning to their dream of buying a new car. Therefore, sales of used cars will continue to grow, but at a more moderate pace.
“Used cars are still much more popular with Russians than new ones. However, factors restraining the sales of used cars are also present: it began in the primary market, the supply of fresh cars under the age of 3 years has decreased - many motorists have increased the terms of car ownership, "says Sergey Litvinenko, head of Avito Auto.
In turn, the director of PodborAvto Denis Eremenko notes that the return of consumers to the new car segment, in particular, is associated with good discounts on trade-in programs, which dealers have begun to actively develop lately. In general, the dynamics of demand in the secondary market is within the statistical error, and there is no reason to talk about any growth today.
The law of communicating vessels
According to the basic forecast of the Avtostat agency, in 2018 the secondary housing will grow by 3.2%, to 5.47 million cars. In a year, the used car market will add another 1.5% and reach 5.5 million units. The growth rates will continue to decline, and in 2020 the sales of used cars will amount to 5.6 million units. Thus, after five years of recovery, the second-hand segment will not be able to reach the pre-crisis level of 6.1 million cars. As stated in the study of "Autostat", the formed deferred demand, as well as the inevitable increase in the fleet create preconditions for the growth of the secondary market in the coming years. At the same time, the continuing rise in the cost of living in the absence of growth in real incomes may force Russians to postpone expensive purchases for an indefinite period, including a car. This will lead to an increase in the period of car ownership and, as a consequence, a decrease in used car sales.
Rolf Group also predicts the growth of the used car market in 2018, especially in the segment under seven years old, with which official dealers are actively working. This will be a consequence of the outlined increase in sales of new cars, because the volume of the secondary market depends not only on the size of the country's car fleet, but also on the dynamics of sales of new cars. According to Alexei Barinov, director of the used car sales division Blue Fish of Rolf Group, there are not so many “primary” deals on the market now, when a buyer chooses his first car. This means that with the purchase of a new car, he sends the previous one to the secondary market. The number of cases where a car is sold and nothing is bought in return is expected to decrease - in the midst of the economic downturn, such sales were not uncommon.
However, with the end of state support programs and a possible increase in prices due to the next indexation, the market for new cars will expect a decrease in demand, which in a few years will affect the secondary market, Denis Dolmatov, CEO of CarPrice, believes. However, a drop in sales of used cars in general is unlikely, but some age segments may go negative in the near future. “First of all, this concerns the“ three-year-olds ”, because in 2015 the sales of new cars dropped significantly, which is why now significantly fewer cars at the age of three will be brought to the secondary market. And the reduction in supply will inevitably cause a rise in prices, ”warns Denis Dolmatov.
The young are filling their own worth
Meanwhile, already last year Three-year-olds showed compared with other age segments - by 9.6%, according to Autostat estimates. This is due to the fact that it was in 2014 that new cars began to rise in price, and now they are entering the secondary market. Also, an increase in prices was recorded for cars aged two (+ 3.8%) and four (+ 5.2%) years. At the same time, old cars (10 years and older), in addition to the fact that their number on the market is significantly increasing, on the contrary, they are getting cheaper (-1.3%). In general, the weighted average cost of a used car in December 2017 amounted to 561 thousand rubles, which is 1.9% less than a year earlier (572 thousand rubles). At the same time, the decrease in prices was primarily due to a change in the structure of the secondary car market towards older cars.
Avito Auto statistics confirms this trend: the average cost for all published advertisements for the sale of cars in 2017 decreased by 9% - to 511 thousand rubles. At the same time, buyers were most actively (in 65% of cases) interested in cars over seven years old, which is explained, first of all, by their relatively low average price - 284 thousand rubles.
According to CarPrice, the decline in the average price last year was 0.8%, which indicates a stable budget for buying a car. “People are ready to spend no more than last year - in the region of half a million rubles. This amount is comfortable for many, since it allows you to do without a loan. However, a slight upward price correction is quite possible. The reason may be new credit programs for buyers of used cars, ”notes Denis Dolmatov. In his opinion, fresh used cars purchased in 2015 at new post-crisis prices will be sold more expensive than now. But on cars that are 10 or more years old, this rise in price will not affect in any way, since there only the state affects the cost, and not the price for which the car was once purchased by a new one by one of the previous owners.
Aged a lot
But the Rolf Group of Companies predicts a gradual rise in prices in the secondary market, and it will affect cars of any age: prices for new cars continue to rise, and prices for used cars are gradually catching up with them... "At the same time, it is logical that buyers who do not have the necessary amount to buy a new or" young "car are forced to choose from more affordable, and therefore older options," says Alexei Barinov.
Indeed, in the face of falling real consumer incomes, the demand for older cars is growing every year. There are millions of people in the country who need a car, but do not have enough money for a new one, and the only alternative for them is to buy an old car for 200-300 thousand rubles. Last year alone, more than 2.65 million Russians bought cars over 10 years old. As a result, the share of such cars in the secondary market for the first time exceeded 50%, according to the agency "Autostat". For comparison: before 2014 it was about 40%, and in the crisis years 2015–2016 it increased to 44–45%.
According to Anton Demkin, Sales Director of Avilon-Trade, this trend is primarily due to cars under the age of three years, since many car owners have increased the terms of car ownership due to lack of money to change the car.
In turn, CarPrice predicts that the share of cars over ten years old will continue to grow until prices for new cars stabilize. After all, the demand for "ten-year" is supported largely due to the continuing rise in the cost of new cars, which pulls up the prices for fresh secondary housing.
Korean breakthrough
Meanwhile, the brand structure of new car sales in recent years is gradually beginning to influence the balance of power in the used car segment. So, Korean Hyundai and Kia are rushing ahead, which last year were able to overtake Chevrolet and Volkswagen in sales of used cars, respectively. And if Hyundai has only Toyota and Nissan ahead, which still maintain a significant lead, then Kia should bypass Ford this year.
Top 10 brands on the used car market, units (data of "Autostat")
| № | Brand | 2017 Nov. | Change,% |
| 1. | Lada | 1 442 975 | -0,2 |
| 2. | Toyota | 586 528 | -0,6 |
| 3. | Nissan | 284 587 | 3,1 |
| 4. | Hyundai | 242 116 | 10,1 |
| 5. | Chevrolet | 229 480 | 3,4 |
| 6. | Ford | 207 735 | 2,4 |
| 7. | Kia | 201 826 | 15,3 |
| 8. | Volkswagen | 201 722 | 6,5 |
| 9. | Renault | 175 812 | 9,5 |
| 10. | Mitsubishi | 160 448 | -1,5 |
| Total | 5 301 190 | 2,1 | |
The bestsellers of these brands also improve their positions in the sales ranking: Solaris, at the end of 2017, entered the top three best-selling used foreign cars for the first time, becoming more popular than sedans such as Toyota Camry, Renault Logan and Daewoo Nexia. And the Kia Rio left behind the Volkswagen Passat and Mitsubishi Lancer last year. By the way, the Passat is still the best-selling used car at Volkswagen, but in the near future this status will be occupied by the Polo sedan, the sale of which is gaining momentum in the secondary market. The bestsellers among used cars are Ford Focus and Toyota Corolla, despite the fact that their fleet has been replenished very poorly for many years.
Top-10 models on the used car market, pcs. (data from "Autostat")
| № | Model | 2017 Nov. | Change,% |
| 1. | Lada 2114 | 155 503 | -0,8 |
| 2. | Lada 2107 | 141 172 | -3,2 |
| 3. | Ford focus | 132 731 | 2,6 |
| 4. | Lada 2110 | 119 413 | -4,1 |
| 5. | Lada 2170 | 105 659 | 6,2 |
| 6. | Toyota Corolla | 102 172 | -1,7 |
| 7. | Lada 4x4 | 97 475 | -0,9 |
| 8. | Lada 2112 | 88 232 | -2,5 |
| 9. | Lada 2115 | 87 374 | -0,6 |
| 10. | Hyundai solaris | 79 637 | 27,6 |
“Volkswagen Passat and Toyota Corolla have sold well over the years, and have been imported from overseas with mileage. The share of these cars in the car fleet is quite large, and so far they remain bestsellers. Ford Focus also maintains the leadership position it gained in previous years with the release of the second generation of the model. However, in the near future the market will be replenished with young models of the budget segment B +, and soon they will take the first places in the sales structure, ”comments Alexey Barinov.
According to Denis Dolmatov, the sales leaders of recent years - Hyundai Solaris and Kia Rio - need time to oust the bestsellers of the late 2000s, but sooner or later this will happen.
PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Russian auto market could shrink 35% this year. "Secret" asked Sergei Udalov, executive director of the analytical agency "Autostat", to tell what to expect for the market and who will win in this situation.
What is happening in the car market
Almost everyone is in a difficult situation. Prices for cars have gone up dramatically: car owners who were ready to change their car have now decided to wait another year. Sales are going on, but at a very low level - they are not yet used to the new prices. The issuance of loans has dropped to a minimum.
For brands, the situation is different. It depends on the share of the Russian market in the global sales of the brand, on the composition of the owners and the format of presence in Russia. SsangYong is not leaving the market, but, most likely, it will switch from assembly at a Russian plant to import. Despite the small volume of the market, it is still profitable for them to sell and assemble cars that have already been ordered. Perhaps later they will simply be imported, because with a small volume of assembly, it is completely inefficient to keep personnel, assemble cars and provide logistics.
The departure of General Motors is, in my opinion, not only an economic, but partly a political decision. The Russian market has always been considered significant for an American corporation. Even during the 2009 crisis, Chevrolet and Opel shared 12.3% of the market. And although in 2014, GM saw a serious drop in sales, this figure remained at the level of 8% - this is still a large volume. So if the political situation returns to normal, GM can return to Russia. Although, reputation losses cannot be avoided in this case.
** The car market in Russia may shrink by 35% ** this year ** by 50% ** in 2009 the market for new cars fell, and for secondary cars - by 20%
Ford is no better than GM in terms of sales dynamics, but nevertheless, they are not going to leave the market. In the last crisis, Ford got out of financial problems on its own, and GM took advantage of the state's help, which once again proves the political overtones in leaving the market.
For Japanese Honda and Suzuki in relation to global sales, the Russian market is very small. We have it, rather, niche brands. Depending on the willingness of Japanese brands to put up with losses in Russia, these brands will decide whether to stay or not. They have no production in Russia.
But most European brands are ready to maintain a dealer network in Russia. They raise prices very smoothly without trying to immediately compensate for the growth of currencies. The same BMWs say they are ready to keep the current prices for their cars, despite the fall in profits and margins. Prices for new cars will stabilize and will decline over time, but not much.
Photo: Mitya Aleshkovsky / TASS
How General Motors' departure will affect the market
Chevrolet and Opel have a total of 173 dealerships in Russia, and it is clear that this will hit them. Dealers will continue to service Chevrolet and Opel cars, but it will be more difficult for them to make money on the service - the bulk of the revenue comes from car sales. It is impossible to say unequivocally whether the price of servicing these brands will rise: dealers, on the contrary, will be more free to use spare parts, because GM's strict requirements are unlikely to apply after they leave Russia. Everything will depend on the economic situation of individual dealers, who can lower or increase the cost of servicing Chevrolet and Opel vehicles.
The vacated niche will be gladly sorted out by other market players, but the departure of Opel and Chevrolet is unlikely to somehow affect prices. Opel and Chevrolet will be replaced primarily by the Korean brands Hyundai and Kia. Partly, Volkswagen, Toyota, Škoda. Some consumers may switch to the Russian Lada as well.
Will Russians be left without foreign cars?
The situation cannot be called a full-fledged crisis. No mass exodus of foreign manufacturers is expected. Our market is large even with today's sales volumes, foreign companies are ready to make strategic decisions and maintain a presence on the market. Even if it will fall all this year and will not grow until 2018.
Many dealers and manufacturers were prepared for today's situation thanks to the experience of 2009, when the market fell unexpectedly. Large players will be stable without a serious credit burden. Regional dealers will have the hardest part, especially with brands that are experiencing a sharp drop in sales.
In recent years, most dealers have paid more attention to customer service, including after-sales. Also, many brands and dealers began to independently develop the sale of used cars. The three pillars of today's automotive business are new car sales, service and used car sales. Those who have worked seriously in this direction now have a more stable situation. Such players will be able to develop further and, possibly, even buy someone.
Photo: Mikhail Japaridze / TASS
How the situation will affect the secondary market
The market for used cars is more stable: there is also a fall, but it is much less. For example, in 2009 the market for new cars fell by 50%, and the secondary market fell by only 20%. Here the turnover continues: someone sells their used car and buys a new one on the secondary market. In large cities, people are ready to sell and buy used cars through dealers because they are used to high-quality and professional service. We can already observe a more than 2-fold increase in the volume of sales for some players. When dealers enter the aftermarket, they are willing to cut car prices, as the sale of used cars becomes, to some extent, an assembly line. It is clear that in January-February the secondary market fell sharply, but now prices will be leveled. The market will determine for itself a more or less adequate price for used cars.
What are the prospects for the Russian car industry
Now dealers and manufacturers need to use all possible methods of interacting with the government and their headquarters in order to create a situation in the market that is understandable for consumers. The general state of the economy, the political situation and possible programs of concessional lending will play a very important role here. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is ready to amend agreements on industrial assembly. From the same GM, it demanded the production of 360,000 cars by 2018, which is now unrealistic, so I think that adjustments to the agreements on industrial assembly signed earlier are still possible, primarily in terms of the timing and volume of localization.
In my estimation, under a normal situation, the volume of the Russian market is 3 million passenger cars per year. The fall this year may be 30-50%.
Cover photo: Mikhail Japaridze / TASS
The TOP-10 of the most popular used cars in the capital of Russia according to the results of March 2018 was compiled.
According to the results of March of this year, the Moscow market of used cars showed a decline. In total, 24,090 vehicles were resold during the indicated period. According to Avtostat, this result is 8.3% less compared to the same month in 2017. The Ford Focus again became the leader in terms of sales in the secondary car market.
TOP-10 of the most popular used cars in Moscow at the end of March 2018 |
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| A place | Model | Sales in March 2018, pcs. | Difference, % |
| 1 | Ford focus | 787 | — 14,5 |
| 2 | Hyundai solaris | 716 | — 4,0 |
| 3 | Kia rio | 523 | + 16,5 |
| 4 | Skoda Octavia | 516 | + 24,0 |
| 5 | Toyota Camry | 418 | + 7,0 |
| 6 | Volkswagen polo | 383 | + 15,0 |
| 7 | Opal astra | 343 | — 15,0 |
| 8 | Mercedes-Benz E-Class | 333 | — 11,0 |
| 9 | Bmw 5 series | 318 | — 4,5 |
| 10 | Volkswagen passat | 309 | — 19,0 |
Hyundai Solaris was on the first line of the rating of the most demanded cars in the secondary car market of the capital of the Russian Federation in January and February 2018. Now the Ford Focus has returned to the leader's place, despite the negative sales dynamics. The most significant drop out of the top ten was in the Volkswagen Passat, and the most noticeable increase was in the Skoda Octavia.
It is curious that Ford Focus overtook Hyundai Solaris not only in March, but also in the first quarter, since the total number of resold Focuses in the first three months amounted to 2,023 units, while the same figure for Solaris was 1,958 units.
Earlier, the portal "Kolesa.ru" reported that in 2018 there were about 489,100 cars. This result is 6.7% more compared to March 2017. Among the leaders in the country are Lada 2114 (13 807 units), Ford Focus (12 167), Lada 2107 (11 630), Lada 2110 (10 523), Lada Priora sedan (10 373), Toyota Corolla (9 507) , Lada 4 × 4 (8 734), Hyundai Solaris (8 023), Lada 2112 (8 011) and Lada 2115 (7 758 cars).
At the end of 2017, we also published. The five leaders included Ford Focus, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Solaris, Toyota Camry and Renault Logan.
At 17.3%, July was even more shocking. Car sales fell immediately by 22.9%! Nobody seemed to have expected such a fall.
“Unfortunately, the contraction of the automotive market continued, picking up speed in July. Overall, the trend is worrisome and unlikely to fundamentally change any time soon. Of course, the Moscow Motor Show, which will open at the end of August, should have a stimulating effect on car sales, especially considering that autumn is a season of high sales. At least this is what used to be the case. But can you call this year an ordinary year? ”- ironically the chairman of the committee of automakers of the Association of European Businesses Jörg Schreiber. Moreover, with a high degree of probability, it can be argued that the market has not yet reached the bottom. The decline is likely to continue in the coming months.
Among the market leaders, Chevrolet suffered the most from the crisis - sales in June almost halved (minus 23% in 7 months of 2014). Volkswagen dealers also found themselves in a difficult situation (-32% in July). AvtoVAZ has lost a lot, but this does not surprise anyone - minus 25%. We can also note a serious drop in demand for Mitsubishi (-42%) and Ford. Immediately minus 52% in one month, and now Ford, which was once one of the leaders of the Russian market, occupies only 12th place in the overall standings (at the end of 2014, Ford has already lost 41% - this is the most serious decline among all more or less major market players).
However, there are companies that, even in the current conditions, manage to maintain their positions. And even increase sales! For example, Skoda in June was able to grow by 4%, and Mazda by 13%.
And once again it became clear - no crisis threatens premium brands in Russia. The passenger car division of Mercedes-Benz in July increased sales by 13% (and + 18% at the end of the year), demand for Lexus grew by 21% (+ 17% at the end of the year), and Porsche added 29%.
Lada Granta is still in the lead in the "personal" standings (11,819 units were sold in June). However, pay attention - Hyundai Solaris sold 9,778 cars! Moreover, every month the difference between these two models is steadily decreasing. This means that at the end of the year, a foreign car may come out on top in sales in Russia! Even if it was made in Russia (for comparison, in July 2013 the difference between Granta and Solaris was completely different: 14,542 versus 9,482 in favor of Lada).
The third place is occupied by Kia Rio (6 853 units), Renault Duster (5 694 units) is in the fourth place, and Renault Logan closes the top five - 5 630 cars. Then Lada Largus and Kalina, Volkswagen Polo, Lada Priora, and in tenth place is Toyota Camry.
SALES OF NEW PASSENGER AND LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION BY BRANDS
| Lada | 28 014 | 37 549 | -25% | 220 822 | 264 278 | -16% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| KIA | 15 303 | 17 099 | -11% | 109 276 | 111 969 | -2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Renault | 15 219 | 18 013 | -16% | 111 640 | 122 646 | -9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hyundai | 14 461 | 14 753 | -2% | 104 035 | 104 219 | 0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Toyota | 13 312 | 14 599 | -9% | 89 800 | 87 653 | 2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Nissan | 9 136 | 11 605 | -21% | 91 484 | 75 352 | 21% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| VW | 9 010 | 13 303 | -32% | 76 363 | 90 583 | -16% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chevrolet | 8 457 | 15 487 | -45% | 73 749 | 95 687 | -23% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Škoda | 7 064 | 6 805 | 4% | 49 111 | 49 652 | -1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GAZ com.aut. | 5 517 | 7 245 | -24% | 37 298 | 45 425 | -18% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Opel | 4 926 | 6 551 | -25% | 38 440 | 46 144 | -17% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ford | 4 500 | 9 293 | -52% | 35 818 | 60 416 | -41% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mercedes-Benz | 4 323 | 3 835 | 13% | 28 085 | 23 865 | 18% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mazda | 3 743 | 3 300 | 13% | 27 544 | 23 442 | 17% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mitsubishi | 3 501 | 6 087 | -42% | 41 957 | 43 662 | -4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UAZ | 3 002 | 4 158 | -28% | 22 560 | 29 141 | -23% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Daewoo | 2 841 | 3 908 | -27% | 26 860 | 31 182 | -14% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Audi | 2 600 | 2 954 | -12% | 20 566 | 21 135 | -3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SsangYong | 2 421 | 3 651 | -34% | 13 844 | 19 516 | -29% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bmw | 2 178 | 3 515 | -38% | 21 735 | 22 789 | -5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lifan | 1 861 | 2 603 | -29% | 12 011 | 14 083 | -15% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Land rover | 1 716 | 1 715 | 0% | 12 086 | 11 307 | 7% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lexus | 1 575 | 1 298 | 21% | 10 304 | 8 774 | 17% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Citroёn | 1 426 | 2 925 | -51% | 12 461 | 16 772 | -26% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Geely | 1 351 | 2 773 | -51% | 10 671 | 14 474 | -26% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Peugeot | 1 338 | 2 907 | -54% | 13 506 | 20 464 | -34% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Great wall | 1 307 | 1 708 | -23% | 9 403 | 12 122 | -22% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Honda | 1 278 | 2 246 | -43% | 12 424 | 14 520 | -14% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chery | 1 217 | 1 853 | -34% | 10 369 | 11 525 | -10% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Suzuki | 1 146 | 2 551 | -55% | 11 048 | 16 372 | -33% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Subaru | 1 146 | 1 304 | -12% | 9 346 | 9 929 | -6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Volvo | 1 053 | 1 021 | 3% | 9 093 | 8 407 | 8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| VW com.aut. | 920 | 1 312 | -30% | 7 522 | 9 010 | -17% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mercedes-Benz com.aut. | 600 | 411 | 46% | 3 851 | 2 416 | 59% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jeep | 573 | 364 | 57% | 4 460 | 2 413 | 85% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FIAT | 541 | 678 | -20% | 4 241 | 4 181 | 1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Porsche | 385 | 299 | 29% | 2 557 | 2 163 | 18% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Infiniti | 374 | 625 | -40% | 4 743 | 5 051 | -6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FAW | 253 | 461 | -45% | 1 934 | 2 329 | -17% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MINI | 155 | 234 | -34% | 964 | 1 584 | -39% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SEAT | 135 | 370 | -64% | 1 044 | 2 292 | -54% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jaguar | 135 | 175 | -23% | 981 | 938 | 5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Changan | 112 | - | - | 563 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ZAZ | 92 | 219 | -58% | 478 | 2 111 | -77% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Haima | 87 | 37 | 135% | 417 | 136 | 207% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cadillac | 81 | 114 | -29% | 788 | 909 | -13% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Isuzu | 74 | 20 | 270% | 253 | 73 | 247% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BAW | 72 | 134 | -46% | 720 | 1 017 | -29% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Acura | 64 | - | - | 409 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| JAC | 58 | - | - | 189 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Brilliance | 50 | - | - | 232 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| smart | 30 | 26 | 15% | 186 | 108 | 72% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TagAZ | 14 | 170 | -92% | 105 | 282 | -63% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chrysler | 8 | 21 | -62% | 85 | 114 | -25% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Alfa romeo | 8 | - | - | 37 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Luxgen | 2 | - | - | 77 | - | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dodge | 2 | 26 | -92% | 26 | 147 | -82% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Izh | 0 | 55 | - | 19 | 585 | -97% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BYD | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 100 | -95% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Foton | 0 | 0 | - | 11 | 6 | 83% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 180 767 | 234 365 | -22.9% | 1 410 606 | 1 565 470 | -9.9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SALES OF NEW PASSENGER AND LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION BY MODELS
| 1 | Granta | Lada | 11 819 | 14 542 | (2 723) | 1 | Granta | Lada | 83 294 | 98 787 | (15 493) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Solaris | Hyundai | 9 778 | 9 482 | 296 | 2 | Solaris | Hyundai | 65 352 | 66 491 | (1 139) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | New rio | KIA | 6 853 | 7 651 | (798) | 3 | New rio | KIA | 54 033 | 51 887 | 2 146 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Duster | Renault | 5 694 | 7 348 | (1 654) | 4 | Duster | Renault | 46 761 | 48 058 | (1 297) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Logan | Renault | 5 630 | 4 289 | 1 341 | 5 | Kalina | Lada | 39 902 | 40 870 | (968) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Largus | Lada | 4 798 | 4 867 | (69) | 6 | Largus | Lada | 39 718 | 29 569 | 10 149 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Kalina | Lada | 4 436 | 3 789 | 647 | 7 | Polo | VW | 36 526 | 41 720 | (5 194) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Polo | VW | 4 389 | 7 000 | (2 611) | 8 | Logan | Renault | 30 335 | 30 180 | 155 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Priora | Lada | 3 429 | 4 882 | (1 453) | 9 | Priora | Lada | 28 282 | 36 763 | (8 481) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Camry | Toyota | 3 122 | 4 207 | (1 085) | 10 | Almera | Nissan | 27 335 | 4 484 | 22 851 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | New Cee’d | KIA | 2 857 | 2 955 | (98) | 11 | Niva | Chevrolet | 23 544 | 29 816 | (6 272) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Niva | Chevrolet | 2 692 | 3 961 | (1 269) | 12 | Octavia a7 | Skoda | 22 051 | 1 757 | 20 294 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Octavia a7 | Skoda | 2 635 | 778 | 1 857 | 13 | Sandero | Renault | 21 413 | 26 044 | (4 631) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 4 × 4 | Lada | 2 605 | 3 431 | (826) | 14 | RAV 4 | Toyota | 21 368 | 23 389 | (2 021) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Corolla | Toyota | 2 582 | 1 812 | 770 | 15 | 4 × 4 | Lada | 21 281 | 25 320 | (4 039) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Rapid | Skoda | 2 578 | 0 | - | 16 | ix35 | Hyundai | 20 325 | 18 063 | 2 262 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | RAV 4 | Toyota | 2 489 | 3 474 | (985) | 17 | Camry | Toyota | 19 309 | 20 465 | (1 156) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | Cruze | Chevrolet | 2 488 | 6 644 | (4 156) | 18 | Cruze | Chevrolet | 18 769 | 31 296 | (12 527) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | Sandero | Renault | 2 314 | 3 806 | (1 492) | 19 | Corolla | Toyota | 17 573 | 14 443 | 3 130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | ix35 | Hyundai | 2 238 | 2 859 | (621) | 20 | Qashqai | Nissan | 17 373 | 19 388 | (2 015) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 | Almera | Nissan | 2 196 | 1 548 | 648 | 21 | Focus | Ford | 16 989 | 39 913 | (22 924) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 22 | Sportage | KIA | 2 060 | 2 675 | (615) | 22 | Sportage | KIA | 16 505 | 19 030 | (2 525) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 23 | Focus | Ford | 2 056 | 5 749 | (3 693) | 23 | New Cee’d | KIA | 16 093 | 18 735 | (2 642) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 24 | Qashqai | Nissan | 2 017 | 3 242 | (1 225) | 24 | Astra | Opel | 15 019 | 22 532 | (7 513) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 25 | Mokka | Opel | 1 938 | 490 | 1 448 | 25 | Outlander | Mitsubishi | 13 545 | 13 079 | 466 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sales of new passenger cars in Russia at the end of 2016 decreased by 11%. The rate of decline has decreased three times due to state support programs, economic stabilization and deferred demand, experts say
« Final search for the bottom "
In December 2016, about 146 thousand new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCV) were sold in Russia, which is 10% more than the result of November (132.3 thousand), follows from the report of the Association of European Businesses (AEB).
But at the end of 2016, 1,425,791 cars were sold in Russia, which is 176,319 units, or 11%, less than a year earlier. Thus, last year was the fourth year in a row that the Russian automotive market fell, although the rate of decline decreased 3.2 times: in 2013, sales decreased by 5%, in 2014 - by 10.3%, in 2015 - by 35.7%.
Compared to the "double-digit decline in the first nine months of the year," December sales are a "good result," said AEB's chairman of the AEB automakers committee, Jörg Schreiber, quoted in the association's announcement. “The market as a whole still needs a positive reversal, but is obviously in the process of finally finding a bottom,” he added. The AEB hopes that in 2017 the Russian market “has the potential” to end a four-year decline and return to moderate growth. Total car sales in 2017 are expected to amount to 1.48 million units, which is 4% more than in 2016, Schreiber said.
Subaru and Suzuki believe that in 2017 the market may grow even a little more - by 4-5%, their representatives say. “So far there are no prerequisites for global growth,” admits Irina Zelentsova, head of the sales and marketing department at Suzuki Motor Rus. “We do not expect dramatic changes in 2017,” agrees Subaru Motor CEO Yoshiki Kishimoto. And Toyota believes that the market volume in 2017 will remain at the level of 2016, says Natalya Astafieva, a leading public relations specialist at the company. “The Russian automotive market remains one of the priority markets for Toyota, and we see it as promising,” she points out.
The relative stabilization of the car market has occurred due to state support programs, an improvement in the economic situation and deferred demand, Sergey Udalov, executive director of Avtostat, told RBC. Autostat's forecast does not differ much from the AEB, the growth by the end of the year may amount to about 5%. At the same time, the car market is quite volatile, if there are sharp movements in the economy, then, perhaps, the market recovery will go faster, he adds.
One fifth of all new car sales in 2016 came from cars manufactured by AvtoVAZ. As follows from the company's message published on Thursday, the plant sold 266.23 thousand cars in Russia over the year, which is 1% (2.8 thousand units) less than in 2015. According to AvtoVAZ's own assessment, the share of Lada in the Russian market at the end of the year amounted to 20%, which is 2.2 percentage points. better than the indicators of 2015. However, according to the AEB, in 2016 the share of the concern amounted to 18.7%, having increased by only 1.9% p.p.
How AvtoVAZ increased its share
At the end of 2015, Lada sales decreased by 30%, while the share of AvtoVAZ was 16.8% (according to AEB) in the total volume. In early March, the plant's shareholders, the Renuat-Nissan alliance and Rostec, decided to dismiss its president, Bo Andersson, who had headed the company since January 2014. One of the main reasons was the huge losses at the end of 2015 - 73.9 billion rubles. Instead of cooperating with Russian suppliers of components, Andersson chose to go "the easiest way", said then the general director of "Rostec" Sergei Chemezov, explaining the reason for the resignation of the top manager and the poor financial results of the company. According to him, it was "a big mistake."
A month before his resignation, Andersson said that in 2016 AvtoVAZ will increase its share to 20%. The press service of the plant on Thursday said that this goal has been achieved - the plant controls 20% of sales of new cars. But, according to the AEB, the share of Lada in the total sales volume was 18.7%.
After the resignation of the president of AvtoVAZ, the company was headed by Nicolas Mor, who came from another subsidiary of the Renault-Nissan alliance, the Romanian Dacia. “First, my main goal is to return the company to profitability. Secondly, the strengthening of Lada's presence in the Russian market. Thirdly, it is necessary to bring standards and methods of managing the alliance to AvtoVAZ, to attract more and more employees from AvtoVAZ to projects that are being implemented within the perimeter of the Renault-Nissan alliance, ”Mor said in an interview with Vedomosti in June 2016.
In addition, Mor was tasked with increasing the level of localization of components that AvtoVAZ uses in its models, said Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov.
South Korean seat manufacturer Daewon localizes at the IzhAvto site (one of AvtoVAZ's factories) in Izhevsk the production of seat frames for Lada Vesta, which were previously imported, Chemezov said at a briefing in December: “The task is to localize the frames as soon as possible.” According to him, the plant can increase the level of localization of new models just due to the active attraction of foreign suppliers to Russia, AvtoVAZ should increase the localization of Vesta and Xray by 10 percentage points in three years, to about 50%.
Korean manufacturers Kia (149.5 thousand) and Hyundai (145.25 thousand), which took the second and third places at the end of 2016, reduced sales by 9 and 10%, respectively, follows from the AEB report. Lexus (up 19%, up to 24.1 thousand), Lifan (+ 15%, up to 17.46 thousand), Ford (+ 10%, up to 42.5 thousand) were also able to increase sales at the end of the year. , Skoda (+ 1%, up to 55.4 thousand) and UAZ (+ 1%, up to 48.85 thousand). And outsiders at the end of 2016 were SsangYong (-78%), Honda (-62%), Geely (-61%) and Mitsubishi (-53%).
Among the models, Hyundai Solaris became the main bestseller of the Russian car market at the end of 2016, although its sales on an annualized basis fell by more than 20% (to 90.38 thousand units). The second place is taken by Lada Granta (-27%, 87.72 units), the third place is taken by Kia Rio (+ 9.7%, 87.66 thousand cars).
Optimistic attitude
Positive changes in the market in 2016 are seen both by companies that have managed to improve their results over the year, and by automakers, who have reduced their share of sales. The share of Kia at the end of the year amounted to 10.5%, having increased by 0.3 percentage points, Alexander Moinov, Managing Director of KIA Motor Rus, told RBC. The goal for 2017 is to bring this figure to 11%, he added.
Russia remains a "key strategic market" for Nissan as well, the company is implementing long-term plans to increase localization and strengthen its positions, the head of Nissan in Russia, Andrei Akifiev, told RBC through the press service. “The foundation we have built in Russia is strong enough, but at the same time, due to external factors, we have to adjust our course in accordance with the new conditions,” he admitted.
Natalya Kostyukovich, PR Director of Volkswagen Group Rus, told RBC that despite the fact that in 2016 the automotive market fell by 11%, the company was able to increase its market share from 10.3 to 11%. In 2016, Volkswagen sold 157 thousand vehicles in Russia, of which 147 thousand were produced at local production sites - in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod. The volume of local production in 2016 increased by 9%, she said.
“The results of 2016 are quite expected. Of course, we wanted to sell more cars, but we made a good start for the future. Our goal for 2017 is to increase our market share to 1% (about 0.5%), and in the optimistic scenario - up to 4%, ”said Alexander Migal, Managing Director of Peugeot, Citroen and DS.
"In 2016, Subaru sales decreased by 18%, this is due to the fact that initially we planned sales based on the fact that the market will fall by 20%, so this is quite an expected result for us," Kishimoto told RBC through the press service. Initially in 2016, the company planned to sell 5.5 thousand cars, but in the end it sold a little more - 5.7 thousand.
Growth not in Russia
According to preliminary estimates, by the end of 2016, the volume of the global car market will amount to 90.9 million units, which is 1.7% higher than in 2015 (89.4 million units - data from IHS Automotive). In contrast to the Russian car market, global sales have shown positive dynamics over the past five years.
According to focus2move data, Volkswagen became the leader of the world car market at the end of last year, having sold 10.1 million cars, which is 1.4% higher than in 2015. And Toyota dropped to second place from 9.95 million cars (+ 0.2%). The Renault-Nissan alliance, which controls Russian AvtoVAZ, sold 8.5 million vehicles (+ 6.2%), Korean Hyundai and Kia - 8.17 million units (+ 1.9%). The top five is closed by the American General Motors - 7.97 million (+ 0.3%).
At the end of 2014, there was a drop in oil prices, a weakening of the ruble, a destabilization of the economy, which caused an increase in car prices, recalls Udalov from Avtostat. As a result, the Russian car market began to decline, unlike the world one, he notes.
But in 2017, experts expect a drop in sales of the global car market. Until the end of this year, only 83.6 million new cars can be sold (8% less than expected at the end of 2016), predicts the Association of the German Automotive Industry (VDA).
