The sample was made based on data for the second half of 2017 for cars costing up to 1 million rubles. In general, according to analysts, several factors can influence the decline in demand: high price, brand positioning, equipment and model specificity. But in some cases, the drop in car liquidity is difficult to explain even to market professionals.
This, for example, happens with Mercedes-Benz B-Class, which previously sold well, but have lost demand, although many sellers say that the model is even undervalued on the market.
There are no, as he writes, obvious reasons for the failure of sales Ford sedan Fiesta, which just hit the secondary market. Particularly surprising is the low demand for this model against the backdrop of popularity Ford cars with mileage in general.
The list continues with unsuccessful configurations of popular models. In particular, this Skoda Yeti And Nissan Qashqai with 1.2-liter petrol turbo engines, which many consider not only weak, but also unreliable. The likelihood of breakdowns also reduces the demand for crossovers Hyundai Tucson With robotic box gears and Suzuki Grand Vitara– with mechanical.
Not sold on the secondary market Opel hatchbacks Astra J in initial versions, although the same sedans and station wagons sell quite quickly, and Hyundai I30 - especially with a 1.4-liter engine with “mechanics”.
High price deters buyers Chevrolet Cruze with a 1.4 petrol turbo engine - it costs the same as Ford Focus or Volkswagen Golf. Instead of used Suzuki SX4 SUVs, car enthusiasts prefer to take a comparable one Toyota cost RAV4.
The Mitsubishi L200 pickup is losing competition for the same reason Volkswagen Amarok, A Nissan crossover Terrano - its “twin brother” Renault Duster.
Analytical agency "Autostat" conducted another study of the liquidity of models presented on the Russian market. Based on its results, experts selected the most profitable three-year-old cars for resale in 5 segments.
The study looked at the cost of new cars in 2012 and their average resale price in 2015. The study included cars from more than 50 brands represented on the Russian market. The publication “Behind the Wheel” presents the results of the study with comments from experts and market participants.
Mass brands
Subcompact models:
1. Kia Picanto(retained 80.99% of its value over 3 years)
2. Daewoo Matiz (69,85%)
3. Lifan Smily
Serious gap Kia Picanto from its closest competitors is explained by a reduction in supply in the segment of subcompact models on the Russian market. The car, assembled in Korea, has a 5-year warranty and, in terms of equipment, has virtually no competitors in its class. In addition, the model is supplied to Russia in limited quantities, which explains its high value at secondary market.
Compact models:
1. Lada Granta (83,18%)
2. Renault Sandero (83,17%)
3. Hyundai Solaris (82%)
The three leaders in the segment of compact “state cars” are almost on par in terms of residual value. The differences do not exceed the level of statistical error, especially taking into account the variation in the cost of configurations.
According to Lada dealers, the Granta model took first place due to its relatively low maintenance cost, affordable prices for CASCO insurance and wide choice aftermarket configurations.
Golf class models:
1. Volkswagen Golf (84, 72%)
2. Citroen DS4 (80.11%)
3. Toyota Corolla (79%)
In the 2015 ranking Toyota of the Year Corolla held the title of the most marketable class C car. Experts attribute the change in leader to random price fluctuations on the market and changes in the number of trim levels considered.
Business class:
1. Toyota Camry (85,62%)
2. Mazda 6 (80.93%)
3. Volkswagen Passat CC (79.69%)
Minivans:
1. Kia Soul (77,69%)
2. Kia Venga (72,61%)
3. Citroen C3 Picasso (69.87%)
Pickups:
1. Toyota Hilux (99,28%
)
2. Volkswagen Amarok (88.78%)
3. Mitsubishi L200 (80.74%)
On average, a Japanese pickup truck loses less than 1% of its value over three years. But experts still do not recommend considering a car as a storage facility for money.
Mini crossovers:
1. Renault Duster ( 93,35%
)
2. Suzuki Jimny (82,74%)
3. Nissan Juke (79,7%)
The model did not make it into the current Top 3 due to a decrease in the shortage of new models in car dealerships, a warranty twice inferior to the Renault Duster in terms of mileage and specific use of the model. As a rule, an SUV is used in difficult conditions and by the age of three he is in worse condition.
Compact crossovers:
1. Kia Sportage (81,22%)
2. Mitsubishi ASX (80,47%)
3. Mazda CX-5 (80.22%)
Korean, Japanese and domestic brands, as a rule, lead in residual value due to the relatively low initial price (at new model) and the availability of its maintenance and operation.
Mid-size crossovers:
1. Toyota Land Cruiser Prado (80,02%)
2. Toyota Highlander (79,31%)
3. Mitsubishi Pajero Sport (74.95%)
Large crossovers:
1. Volkswagen Touareg (84,9%)
2. Toyota Land Cruiser 200 (82.35%)
3. Mitsubishi Pajero (79.61%)
Volkswagen Touareg
Photo: VolkswagenCurious what year average index preservation of the residual value of cars increased from 75 to 80 percent. But this is explained not by the fact that models began to wear out and depreciate more slowly, but by the rapid rise in prices on the secondary market. Automakers strive to keep prices down to maintain demand. At the same time, the depreciation of the ruble against the dollar and euro was more significant than the rise in price of new cars over the same period.
At the same time, the solvency of the population decreased and demand shifted towards the secondary market. And where demand grows, prices also rise.
Experts expect that prices for new cars will continue to rise, even if the ruble exchange rate stabilizes, in order to make up the difference. Prices on the secondary market will also rise, which will lead to a further increase in the average residual value. It is expected that it may exceed 90%.
But Autostat still does not recommend considering a car as an investment, since the residual value of the model does not take into account the costs of its maintenance. Moreover, the liquidity of a particular model fluctuates unpredictably and, in general, changes average price it is rather speculative in nature.
Premium brands
Subcompacts:
1. BMW 1-Series (81.73%)
2. Mercedes-Benz A-Class (78.86%)
3. Audi A3 (67.62%)
Compact class:
1. BMW 3-Series (77.77%)
2. Audi A4 (75.14%)
3. Volvo V60 (74.12%)
Middle class:
1. Lexus ES (74.85%)
2. Lexus GS (74.73%)
3. Porsche Panamera (70,03%)
Full size models:
1. Lexus LS (67.67%)
2. Mercedes-Benz S-Class (56,13%)
3. Jaguar XJ (54.2%)
Compact crossovers:
1. Audi Q3 (82.49%)
2.Range Rover Evoque (78,7%)
3. Mercedes-Benz GLK (72,72%)
Mid-size crossovers:
1. BMW X3 (79.4%)
2. Audi Q5 (75.52%)
3. Volvo XC60 (74.24%)
Large crossovers
1. Porsche Cayenne (85,43%)
2. Mercedes M-Classe (80.31%)
3. Lexus LX (79.51%)
The most liquid cars presented in Russia were Toyota Highlander and Porsche Macan with three years of mileage. Their value has not only not fallen since 2014, but has also increased - by 4.06 and 2.98%, respectively. One crossover ultimately won in the mass segment, the second in the premium segment.
All other models have lost at least a little in price. So, in the top 10 among more available cars also included Mazda 3 (with a result of 99.95% of the residual value), Toyota LC Prado (99.66%), Mazda CX-5 (98.15%), VW Touareg (96.05%), Toyota RAV 4 (95 .45%), Mazda 6 (95.24%), Hyundai Santa Fe (94.25%), Subaru Forester(93.60%) and Toyota Corolla (93.34%). Let us note that in the top twenty there was also room for domestic car - Lada Largus took 19th position with a score of 89.30%.
IN premium segment located after Macan Mercedes GLA(95.82%), Porsche Cayenne (95.65%), Volvo XC70 (94.73%), Mercedes A-Class(94.52%), Volvo XC60 (93.68%), BMW X5 (93.11%), BMW 3 GT (93.09%), Audi Q3 (92.35%) and Mercedes CLA(92.11%). The most liquid on this list japanese car- Lexus GX - took only 16th place with a score of 87.48%.
It is obvious that brands from the Land of the Rising Sun dominate the ranking of mass brands. The most profitable cars, according to the study, Mazda produces with an average three-year residual value of 97.67%. In second place is Toyota (95.11%), in third place is Korean Hyundai(90.57%). The following list looks like this: Kia (89.68%), Subaru (88.99%), Honda (87.05%), VW (86.76%), Suzuki (85.74%), Mitsubishi (85.53 %), Ford (84.41%). Lada was in 15th place with a figure of 81.23%, behind Renault, Skoda, SsangYong and Nissan, but ahead Great Wall, Chevrolet, Daewoo, Opel and Citroen. UAZ is in 23rd position, leaving behind only Chery (72.00%), Lifan (65.13%) and Geely (65.11%).
It is not surprising that collectively Russian brands ended up only slightly ahead of their rivals from the Middle Kingdom - with group averages of 78.78% and 72.61%, respectively. And the Japanese and korean brands- their liquidity is estimated at 89.13% and 88.12%. “Americans” (Ford and Chevrolet) were third (82.74%), beating a large group of European brands (VW, Renault, Skoda, Opel, Citroen and Peugeot - 81.32%).
Porsche Macan S. Photo: newsroom.porsche.com.
The “Europeans” made up for it in the premium segment, where they are also represented by a large group of brands (Volvo, Porsche, Mercedes, Land Rover, MINI, BMW, Audi and Jaguar) and have an average residual value of 82.86%. The “Americans” with Chrysler, Jeep and Cadillac were second (79.67%), and the “Japanese” (Lexus, Infiniti and Acura) were third (77.46%).
Let’s add that in the ranking of brands in the premium segment, the top 10 looks like this: Volvo (90.69%), Porsche (87.85%), Mercedes (85.50%), Chrysler (84.85%), Land Rover (83.38%), MINI (83.13%), BMW (82.93%), Jeep (81.82%), Lexus (81.50%) and Audi (79.31%).
By the way, analysts made an unambiguous conclusion: the residual value for three-year-old used cars is still greatly overestimated due to the significant increase in prices for new cars, which has been observed since the end of 2014.
“However, with a high probability it can be predicted that already in 2018 and in the absence of sharp fluctuations in exchange rates, the residual value of three-year-old used cars will begin to decline,” says the study received by RG. “It is expected that it will gradually return to more traditional values - in the range of 50-70% of the original cost, depending on the class of the car and its liquidity on the secondary market."
The liquidity of a car on the secondary market consists of many factors. Secondary buyers are looking at certain segments, and in each of them there are both leaders and outsiders.
The main criteria when choosing a car are always:
- Car price;
- Brand;
- Complete set and equipment;
- Rarity of the model.
When a car initially costs more than its classmates, the owner tries to realize this on the secondary market. But here the rules are different, and it becomes impossible to sell at one’s own price; the buyer invariably chooses a cheaper competitor. Overpricing is the enemy of liquidity for any car.
Brand also plays a role. Sell luxury Huyndai Genesis for BMW price A used 5 Series will not be easy, although their starting price is similar. In the case of some cars, configuration and equipment play a key role: for example, few people are ready to buy Volkswagen and Skoda with 1.2 and 1.4 liter engines, knowing that the units are unreliable.
Rare models are generally difficult to sell. Auto, for example, like Alfa Romeo They “hang” in ads on the secondary market for a very long time.
Unliquid cars 2017-2018
Some brands are closing their offices and leaving, while others, on the contrary, are ready to open Russian market. For example, Opel and most Chevrolet models left because GM has almost no Russian localization. But the “Chinese” have arrived in the regiment: various Havals and Zotyes appear with enviable regularity.
The updated list of illiquid assets for 2017-2018 included cars and brands that disappeared from the market:
- Chevrolet Cruze;
- Opel Astra J;
- Suzuki Grand Vitara;
- Hyundai ix35;
- Skoda Yeti
- Nissan Qashqai.
For example, the Chevrolet Cruze and Opel Astra are selling poorly due to the sharp increase in prices for new cars just before leaving the market. The image of an expensive, but not the most equipped car has managed to take hold, and to this day buyers more often look at competitors like the Ford Focus. In addition, not all dealerships remaining after the departure of brands are ready to service vehicles.
Suzuki Grand Vitara, Hyundai ix35, Skoda Yeti and Nissan Qashqai failed technical equipment. Mysteriously, there are a large number of Japanese Grand crossovers The Vitara is sold from manual transmission gears, while the discerning audience of this class requires an “automatic”. Korean crossover became famous unreliable transmission, so it languishes on sale for a long time, and the Yeti and Qashqai were let down by the 1.2-liter engine, which is not famous for its reliability or dynamics.
Unliquid cars of all times
There are also models that have never been famous for their liquidity, and it is unlikely that they will ever become easier to sell. Typically this is rare cars, sold in Russia in small quantities. It is difficult for them to find spare parts, they are expensive to maintain, and more popular competitors are surrounded on all sides.
- Alfa Romeo;
- Fiat;
- Old Land Rovers;
- Micromachines;
- Convertibles.
To prevent the list from looking too general, let’s make a small division. In the case of Italian brands, everything is really as sad as it is written in the list - literally every car of the Alfa Romeo or Fiat brand has been sold for years.
About breaking range cars Rover is legendary. Due to the presence of a frame, some models, such as Sport and Vogue, often require the body to be lifted for minor procedures such as gasket replacement. All this leads to a multiple increase in the cost of owning such a car, and secondary buyers know this.
Micromachines are not held in high esteem in Russia, because even the urbanized population prefers big car with a trunk, just in case. Here they vegetate Smart ForTwo, Peugeot 107, Citroen C1 and classmates.
As for convertibles, the Russian climate played a cruel joke on them. Apart from Sochi, there is nowhere else to operate such a car. But people often want it, and they buy it, and then they can’t sell it for a long time. On the market you can see BMW 3 Cabrio, Opel Astra or Peugeot 206 without a roof, which are patiently waiting for their new owner.
