On Monday, the American concern GM and the French group PSA announced the sale of Opel/Vauxhall and a number of other assets with a total staff of 40 thousand people. GM will earn €2.2 billion from the sale, of which €1.8 billion will be paid by PSA. After the deal, PSA will control 17% of the European market, which will allow the group to become the second manufacturer on the continent after Volkswagen.
PSA head Carlos Tavares, speaking to reporters, did not rule out that Opel cars may eventually return to Russian market. “Once the intellectual property rights are transferred to PSA, the Opel brand will have the opportunity to develop in the international market, and thus there will be no exceptions,” he said in response to a question.
The head of the group noted that return of Opel to Russia should be dictated by economic feasibility, and no deadlines were given.
“It depends on the business aspects of what we could build on it. If the business case is profitable, we will do it, if not, we will not do it,” Tavares said.
Tavares expects the Opel/Vauxhall purchase to help “continue the development of this great company and accelerate its turnaround,” PSA said in a press release. The French hope that thanks to the synergy in the procurement, development and production of machines, annual savings will amount to €1.7 billion by 2026. The deal will be finally closed by the end of the year after it is approved by European regulators.
At the same time, Opel and its British division continue to remain unprofitable. It was precisely because of the desire to reduce losses that GM announced its withdrawal from the Russian market in the spring of 2015 Opel brand and most Chevrolet models. Against the backdrop of the collapse of the ruble and a sharp decline in sales, doing business at your own production site became unprofitable.
“We had to take drastic measures in Russia to protect our business. We reaffirm our goal of returning to profitability European business GM in 2016 and will adhere to our long-term goals defined in the DRIVE! strategy. 2022,” he said then CEO Opel Group Karl Thomas Neumann. According to it, by the end of 2022, GM plans to increase its share by European market up to 8% and achieve a profitability of 5%.
As a result, the company mothballed its plant near St. Petersburg and fired the entire staff, paying the workers quite serious compensation - some of them demanded up to 18 salaries. Since then, the situation on the Russian market has only worsened - prices have risen rapidly, and sales of almost all brands have decreased noticeably. In such conditions, the return of the Opel brand to Russia in soon, even taking into account the fact that the market has already begun to recover, is highly unlikely.
Analysts are also not sure about the prospects for Opel's return to Russia.
“It’s hard to say how realistic Opel’s return to the Russian market is; this decision will be made by the new shareholders. But if we look at the capacities that are now available in Russia, we can conclude that competition in the segment passenger cars very high, while the profitability of manufacturers in Russia is quite low,” says an analyst at VTB Capital. — Therefore, I believe that there is no need to return to Russia and start production here. It is only possible to import for the purpose of presence in some niche segments.
It seems to me that it is too early to allow full-scale production in Russia.
The situation may change if the market goes up sharply, the ruble strengthens, and foreign exchange costs in ruble terms, accordingly, decrease.”
The Vice President (ROAD) also believes that a possible return will not be easy.
“When Opel left Russia, there were more than two million cars of this brand,” he says. - This is a huge army of fans, so if he returns to the Russian market, it will be very good. At the very least, Russians will have more choice. But it’s relatively easy to come and reactivate factories, but to create a high-quality dealer network much more difficult.
But I think that many dealers will agree to work with Opel again. If all other brands perform well here, then why can’t Opel succeed? Nothing is impossible."
However, the expert also noted that everything will depend on economic feasibility, and this question remains open.
The crisis has hit everyone: both those who have reduced their presence in the Russian automobile market to a minimum, and those who are still resisting the circumstances. Some automakers, unable to withstand the heat of the economic struggle, gave up and left the market along with models that could compete with the most popular cars remaining on the market.
Experts say that the situation where models will continue to be “washed out” from the market will persist until mid-2017. Then it will begin to straighten out - slowly, little by little. We have every reason to believe that some models that unjustifiably left the Russian car market will return to it. Who should we expect first?
No matter what the Uzbeks from Ravon come up with with budget Chevys, they won’t be able to resurrect Cruz. Therefore, parent GM will have to wait until they get their act together and bring us a new generation of the popular sedan in Russia - in almost 5 years we have sold 192,597 cars. By the way, the Americans have already told the media that next year they will probably reopen their plant in St. Petersburg and return to the market with a portion of new products. Surely not without Cruze, which claims to have the status in its homeland best car of the year.
If about those who left the market Seat Leon And Skoda Fabia Nobody particularly remembers it, but they still grieve over Astra. Great car, which is not least evidenced by sales figures - over the five-year period, 170,307 Russians acquired a car. If they are not bluffing overseas and the brand really appears on our market again, then consumers will no longer even get “The Best european car 2016”, and its latest generation. Fans of drive will certainly appreciate the sporty version of the GTC, which may once again be the leader of its segment in Russia.
Opel Mokka
For more than three years, the “German” praised by Claudia Schiffer sold 44,208 copies in Russia, surpassing Japanese releases in sales. Nissan Juke And Mitsubishi ASX. Of course, because “Mocha” was different best performance comfort, excellent ergonomics and equipment. However, both competitors also left the market, so if the Yankees launch their crossover again, it will have every chance of success. Of course, after Hyundai Creta, cheerful Renault Duster and its “capture” shell. Well, let's wait for 2017.
Mitsubishi ASX
By the way, about the Japanese. As told new president Mitsubishi Russian office Naoya Nakamura, the issue of resuming supplies of the popular crossover to our country is regularly discussed. If by next year economic situation is more or less stabilizing, the restyled ASX, presented at the last Geneva Motor Show, will still reach us.
Nissan Juke
As for Nissan, they also intend to open sales of the updated Juke in 2017. In any case, in Russian representative office brands do not exclude this possibility. It is worth noting that both cars were in almost equal demand: between 2011 and 2015, the ASX found 94,093 owners, and the most small crossover Nissan - 93,679.
The new owner of Opel, the PSA alliance, has taken on the Ukrainian market, followed by the Russian one?
At first next year representative office of Peugeot-Citroen Ukraine (last year the concern General Motors sold Opel to the PSA Peugeot Citroën alliance) the activities of the Opel brand in Ukraine will be fully controlled. The representative office will receive maximum powers, including the import of cars from factories operating in Europe and the development of further commercial strategy. It is worth recalling that now each dealer is free to decide which cars to import and what sales policy to pursue. By and large, their activities are not regulated in any way, which damages the brand.
At the same time, the French company will expand its range Opel models and will increase the dealer network. Thus, in 2019 they promise to introduce a number of new models to the Ukrainian market, which probably means the Grandland X and Crossland X crossovers.
It is impossible not to mention that even now there is some centralization of Opel when carrying out activities in Ukraine. For example, the official website provides information that today there are about two dozen authorized Opel services and dealers in the country. However, on some resources dealer centers it is indicated that the above models are presented in a specific city, but Crossland and Grandland are not offered by other centers. The websites of dealership centers in some cities do not operate at all, and another part of them, as it turns out, does not even have their own websites.
Speaking about the market for new cars in Ukraine, its volume is relatively small. According to consulting agencies, last year they managed to sell just over 80 thousand cars here. For comparison, in Russia 100-150 thousand cars are sold in just 1 month.
Against the backdrop of all this, the return of the Opel brand to the Russian market is quite expected and the company’s full return to the Ukrainian market should accelerate a similar step in Russia. Naturally, in a small market saturated with imported models, organizing centralized activities is much easier than returning to the Russian Federation, where most brands have established local production.
And here lies the main problem. Opel will not be able to demonstrate even minimal indicators (comparable, for example, to Suzuki in terms of the number of cars it sold in the first half of 2018 - less than 2 thousand units) if assembly in Russia is not resumed. Thanks to this, the state compensates the tax on imported components with industrial subsidies. The only way out: assembly of brand models at the PSA-Mitsubishi plant in Kaluga. By the way, the Managing Director of PSA in Russia already mentioned such opportunities this year.
In general, Opel’s departure from the domestic market itself looked rather strange: even in the crisis year of 2014, marked by a sharp collapse of the ruble, the brand’s cars felt quite stable on the Russian market. Then the company's dealers sold almost 65 thousand cars. For clarity, this indicator can be compared with Nissan sales(for 2014 - over 160 thousand cars), Mitsubishi (more than 80 thousand), Ford (66 thousand) and Mercedes (49 thousand). Peugeot had just over 21 thousand models sold, Citroen – 20 thousand, which is a total of almost a third less than Opel.
In addition, according to the number of implemented subcompact crossovers, Opel with the Mokka model was two thousand units ahead of Nissan's Juke, and among compact sedans, Asters sold well (23.5 thousand units). Speaking of competitors, Skoda then sold 35 thousand Octavias, Toyota - approximately 28 thousand Corollas, Peugeot - 6.5 thousand 408s, and Citroen - almost 9 thousand C4s.
It is against the backdrop of such seemingly good results There was a winding down of the activities of the American General Motors, which, among other things, owned Opel. Stopped in Russia Opel assembly Astra and Chevrolet Cruze. There were no official comments from the concern at that time, but it became clear that the stumbling block here was Crimea and main reason care - politics.
It is noteworthy that the situation around the peninsula had virtually no impact on activities in Russia European automakers. An example is the construction of a plant near Moscow by the Mercedes company (assembly of the first cars in Russia is expected to begin in 2019) or research into a similar issue BMW representatives– the company is also planning to build its own enterprise and has actually already found a site where, in the future, the production established today in Kaliningrad will be moved.
But something else is of particular interest. Recently, Christophe Bergirran left the post of Eurasian Executive Vice President of the PSA Alliance. Now his activities will be connected with Vauxhall and Opel, or more precisely, with the commercial strategy for the development of these brands. Before leaving his position, Bergirran was very interested in information about the position and position of Opel at the time the brand left the Russian market, as well as what reputation these cars had among domestic car enthusiasts.
So when the PSA alliance sorts out the Ukrainian market, we can expect Opel to return to Russia. According to optimistic forecasts, this could happen as early as 2019.
A statement from the company's press service states that in 2018 the company will introduce two new models and one updated one to the Russian market. One of the new products is listed in the SUV segment (that is, crossovers/SUVs).
If you look at the lineup plant (and it produces a number of cars from the Korean branch of GM under Chevrolet brand), then the only SUV in the range will be revealed: Chevrolet Captiva. This model was in high demand among us, but disappeared when the Americans decided to leave the Russian market and leave only expensive models American division of Chevrolet.
Moreover, it is not a fact that a crossover with a slightly modified appearance (GM Uzbekistan sells cars under brand Ravon) will be imported to us from Uzbekistan. Last year it became known about Ravon's interest in the mothballed General Motors plant in St. Petersburg. But Captiva and co-platform Opel Antara using the large-unit assembly method for our market they made it there.
Chevrolet Captiva with no alternative 2.4-liter engine is being assembled in Uzbekistan gasoline engine 167 hp and a 6-speed automatic transmission. However, in contrast to Chevrolet Orlando, the assembly of which has been discontinued in Uzbekistan, GM Uzbekistan is not going to abandon this model.
Second new model, reported by the Ravon press service, is a “C-segment sedan.” The company also does not specify details, suggesting to wait for new announcements. The only C-class sedan today in the range of the Uzbek plant is Chevrolet Lacetti, which we sell under named Ravon Gentra.
We dare to assume that the production of the Chevrolet Cruze, which was shown in 2015 at the motor show in New York, will be transferred to Uzbekistan, and, most likely, the equipment at the plant will be upgraded for full assembly with welding and painting.
And finally, this year Ravon will introduce to the Russian market updated sedan R4. There is no guesswork here: we are talking about restyling Chevrolet sedan Cobalt, which we sell under the symbol R4 in the pre-reform version. In 2015, the car underwent restyling, its appearance and interior have seriously changed. But wait for some new ones power units It's not worth it after the update.
It is possible that the updated Ravon R4 will enter the Russian market in the near future, but the crossover and sedan will have to wait. We think that Ravon will show its new products at Moscow international motor show, which traditionally takes place at the end of August.
- Another old friend Chevrolet Aveo, may also return to our market. But already from Kazakhstan: the local Asia Auto certified the model in Russia last year.
- The serious intentions of GM Uzbekistan are also evidenced by the fact that Ravon is the official sponsor of the Russian national football team.
In three years, the crisis has formatted the domestic economy beyond recognition. automobile market- only memories remain of the former richness of the assortment. Since 2014, the number of models on sale has decreased by a third, and this process continues: at the beginning of the year, the brand actually left Russia Alfa Romeo, there are now rumors about a possible end to the supply of Fiat passenger cars.
Remembers famous brands, which do not fit into the modern Russian car market, and evaluates the possibility of their return.
Opel and Chevrolet
When General Motors (GM) announced its withdrawal from Russia in 2015, the news was perceived almost as the beginning of a new Cold War. However, over time it became obvious that this was nothing more than a business move that was part of a global strategy. So, about leaving Chevrolet brand from Western and Eastern Europe was announced back in 2013; In Russia, the brand “delayed”, apparently due to the fact that the domestic car market at that time had just begun to descend from the peak of sales in 2012, when almost three million cars were sold.
The sudden crisis spurred the natural course of events: GM promptly switched to a European work scheme - removed mass-segment cars from the domestic market, leaving only expensive ones Chevrolet models: Corvette, Camaro, Tahoe. Can we expect the return of former bestsellers? budget class- Aveo, Cruze, Lanos, - if the market gets better? Obviously not: currently the brand is rapidly losing its position even in India and South Africa, where assembly plants Chevrolet. Sales in these markets will be completed by the end of this year, the Indian plant in Halol will close, and the products of the other plant will be exported to Mexico and South America.
As for Opel, again, no politics: the brand was let down by the low degree of localization of models. Popular cars, like the Insignia, Mokka or Zafira, were produced by the Kaliningrad enterprise Avtotor using the “screwdriver assembly” method, so in the context of the falling ruble exchange rate, their prices literally got out of control.
Could Opel make a comeback? “Yes, it can,” said Carlos Tavares, head of the PSA Peugeot-Citroen concern, which recently acquired the brand. “Of course, if it is economically feasible,” he added. And taking into account the fact that the greatly reduced Russian market today is divided by companies that have been investing heavily in the development of local production for a long time, this is unlikely to be advisable in the foreseeable future, we note.
Alfa Romeo
This Italian brand not the first time to leave Russia: since the beginning of the 2000s, the brand has tried three times to gain a foothold in the market, but each time it failed, unable to withstand competition from German manufacturers. The Italians made their last attempt in 2010, however, this time sales left much to be desired, and the sharp fall in the ruble exchange rate in 2014 put an end to the brand - prices for compact MiTo and Giulietta hatchbacks skyrocketed. In 2016, only 100 cars were sold. In January of this year, deliveries were suspended: with such a volume of sales, it did not make sense to certify new batches of cars in accordance with the requirements of the ERA-GLONASS security system.
Despite a series of failures, the concern Fiat Chrysler does not give up attempts to return the brand to Russia. Moreover, it is planned to follow the beaten path of Chevrolet: the possibility of bringing a representative car to the market is currently being calculated. Alfa sedan Romeo Giulia And premium crossover Stelvio.
Seat
Another brand for which an unlucky star seems to be shining in Russia is the Spanish Seat, which tried to settle here in 1996, 2003, 2006 and 2012. As a division of , Seat focuses on a young audience - car owners aged 25-35 years, to whom the “adult” Skoda brand might seem boring and also expensive. This works well in Europe, where bright and stylish cars Seat performs in the lower segment due to a large number of “weak” trim levels.
However, in Russia, prices for cars turned out to be not “youth” at all, which forced the little-known brand to compete with more popular and popular brands in Russia. Coupled with an ineffective advertising policy, this did not allow Seat to achieve the desired market share of 2.5 percent of the market (the average European figure for the brand) - in 2014, a little more than one thousand cars were sold. Moreover, in general Volkswagen cars over 200 thousand were sold. Observing a decline in the Russian market, the concern decided to stop sales from the beginning of 2015.
Could Seat try its luck a fifth time? Possibly: at the end of June the brand will present new crossover- Seat Arona, built on the Ibiza hatchback units. Considering that in the first quarter of this year, the share of all-terrain vehicles in Russia accounted for 42 percent of sales (125 thousand vehicles), which made the SUV segment the largest, domestic market There is quite a place for an inexpensive “Spaniard”.
