Still observed bad news for car companies that sell new cars. The crisis seems to have passed, but it definitely left its mark. So in 2017, car enthusiasts will still be looking at cheaper options – used cars. By the way, this is an excellent chance for AvtoVAZ to gain an advantage over its competitors.

Unfortunately, in 2017 the decline in interest in new cars will continue. Most buyers will want to switch to used cars in order to save not only on budget, but also premium segment. But automakers say that unpopular cars will not be imported, and at the same time prices will rise.

Back in 2015, sales of new cars amounted to about 1.5 million units. Thus, when the Association of European Businesses made an optimistic forecast at the beginning of the year, it was not confirmed. At that moment, experts believed that about 1.98 passenger and passenger cars would be sold.

Fall in sales by 2017

Many can see that sales are still falling, although not as sharply as before. Despite this, many experts agreed that cars will still become more expensive, and buyers will pay more attention to used cars. vehicles. By the way, for support domestic auto industry About 50 billion rubles were allocated in 2016.

An analyst at IFC Metropol named Andrey Rozhkov is confident that next year will not be so pessimistic. Andrey believes that the drop in sales, even in a very negative economic scenario, could be 7-10 percent. This may happen if people’s incomes, as well as the demand for expensive things themselves, begin to decline.

If we talk about car brands, then premium cars will feel quite comfortable. This demand will be stable due to the fact that such buyers do not react so strongly to the country's economy, which we observe today.

Speech by the Vice-President of ROAD

Vice-president of ROAD says that in next year Used cars will be trending. After all, today our dealers have focused their efforts on such products. It is still difficult to say who will leave the market in 2017, however, we can already predict a significant increase in prices. Auto companies were given budgets to control prices in 2015. This was no longer the case in 2016.

At the same time, cars became more expensive by an average of 20-30 percent. These words are confirmed by the forecast of the analytical agency Autostat. Company experts believe that many buyers of new cars will switch to used vehicles. As analysts have already said this year, the volume of the market for used brands will be 4.8-5.5 million units. At the same time, Autostat employees say that 2017 will not be easy either.

Experts said that in winter sales of new vehicles will not exceed 100 thousand per month. Such facts indicate that even with the most favorable development of the situation for auto companies, sales will not grow more than 1.6 million units. And if events show a negative scenario, then market sales will be equal to 1.3 million.

Andrey Ermakov, director of auto lending development at Loko-Bank, said that in 2017 automakers will not leave the country. Of course, there may be a reduction in the model range, as well as less interesting brands for Russians. It may be that car companies will begin to offer residents different expensive options, but with fewer options.

In 2017, Ermakov does not predict a drop in sales. The director claims an increase of 3 or 5 percent. But if you believe the forecast of the Frost&Sullivan company, then it shows a growth forecast in 2017 of 1.8 million, and in 2021 this indicator could reach 2.8 million units.

Since the beginning of 2016, new cars have risen in price by 7% on average. The price has increased the most Japanese Mazda and Toyota (up 11%). Hyundai and Kia rose in price by 7-8%, Renault and Lada - by 4-5%. On Tuesday, Kommersant, citing its own sources, reported that prices will increase again at the beginning of 2017. However, automakers are in no hurry to name exact dates and numbers.

TV channel “360” decided to find out from market participants what factors influence the cost of cars and whether it can change in the near future.

“Cars are now cheaper than they should be.”

Since the beginning of the crisis, the exchange rate of the dollar and euro almost doubled, while car prices increased by only 20-25%. According to a source from the 360 ​​TV channel on the market, manufacturers are “struggling to bear 50% of losses associated with changes in exchange rates.” And cars in Russia are now much cheaper than they should be.

Automakers are supported by state support measures, and new assistance programs are also being developed. However, no one can manage without an adjustment price increase.

PR Director of Mazda Motor Rus Maria Maguire notes that many companies have assembly plants in Russia, so some automakers were able to level out their dependence on exchange rates.

“The instability of the ruble has a slightly less impact, for this we need a large manufacturer who takes on this risk, so as not to immediately scare the consumer with these prices, but sooner or later this is reflected,” Maguire told the 360 ​​TV channel.

Prices automotive market- an unpredictable thing. Much depends on the big players: for example, if the cost of cars changes Toyota company, then other market participants may follow it.

“Now it’s not serious to say how the situation will change, to calculate some percentages, because December in Russia is the busiest month in terms of sales, and no one understands what will happen next,” says Maguire.

“The tests themselves are not a cheap pleasure”

We also had to spend money on implementation new system security "ERA GLONASS". The device will record the time, date, coordinates and speed of the car in the event of an accident and immediately send the data to the database. A Nissan representative in an interview with the 360 ​​TV channel noted that testing GLONASS is not a cheap pleasure. The system itself is not too expensive, but significant funds are spent on vehicle certification.

“We, as a company operating in Russia, are engaged in certification of the model range; by the end of the year, most of our models will receive this system. This will be one of the factors in a possible price adjustment, but it is not the main and decisive one,” said Roman Skolsky, head of the Nissan PR department.

A Mazda representative notes that everyone is already ready to implement the system, so its appearance will not affect prices in any way.

AvtoVAZ reported that the company has two cars on which the system is already installed - these are Lada Vesta And Lada XRay. A representative of the concern noted that the system is expensive, so the company cannot afford to install it on Lada Kalina, Granta and Largus without changing the retail price “due to economic situation and market development."

“Price increases will exceed the inflation rate”

Alexander Zinoviev, Brand Director of the AutoSpetsCenter Group of Companies ( official dealer Porsche, Audi, BMW/MINI, Nissan, Mazda, Skoda, Kia and other brands), said that the company predicts a price increase of 5-7% at the beginning of 2017. At the same time, the change in cost will most strongly affect mass, rather than premium brands.

“The price increase will exceed average level inflation in the country and is explained by the weak position of the ruble in the world currency market. A number of experts predict a decline in the ruble against the dollar and the euro, which will also contribute to an increase in prices for imported cars", Zinoviev said.

However, automakers are in no hurry to make such forecasts. A Nissan spokesman declined to provide specific figures, noting that price increases would not necessarily occur at the beginning of the year. It is possible that the cost of cars will rise slightly several times.

An AvtoVAZ representative stated that “to talk about pricing policy It’s too early for 2017.” But the company, like other market participants, regularly studies the macroeconomic situation, exchange rates and “considers various scenarios for the development of the situation.”

"This is one of the most standard tools»

Buyers have nothing to fear yet: automakers regularly offer customers discounts and promotions that allow them to purchase a car on favorable terms.

Leading consultant on consumer behavior Arsen Dallakyan explained that announcements of price changes are one of the standard tools for increasing demand for goods. However, all buyers already know that dealers still have cars from last year, which are sold at discounts.

“That’s why we get a double promotion here: first they scare us that prices are going up, and then they offer last year’s product at a discount,” the expert believes.

However, now such actions are unlikely to have a strong impact on the market. Buyers understand that the demand for cars has been declining for several years in a row, and buying a new car is simply not profitable, so many are switching to used cars.

“These classic mechanisms of intimidating the consumer, that the price is rising - they need to buy urgently, no longer work to a lesser extent, because people have learned to behave a little more far-sightedly, they no longer run, scared, to buy something,” Dallakyan said.

According to Nikolai Grigoriev, a member of the Russian Guild of Marketers, there are no grounds for growth in sales in the automobile market yet, so car prices are unlikely to jump sharply. The cost is likely to rise at the rate of inflation.

“Within the limits of inflation, it is possible to somehow restore the profitability of sellers and producers, but I don’t see any opportunities to increase effective demand in the economy yet, there are no signals for this,” Grigoriev believes.

Alina Mukhina

Nina Pogorelova

However, some experts still overestimated the fear of God of auto brands and were inclined to believe that they would not attack our wallets right away, at the very beginning of January. Well, there was a mistake. As the unforgettable Viktor Stepanovich used to say: “It has never happened like this, and here it is again!” Without waiting for the end of the holidays, LADA and Renault rewrote the price tags in the “correct” direction, and Hyundai and KIA delighted buyers with the message that they and Rio would also have to pay more.

Here I would like to remember how an unnamed but very informed source of Kommersant recently lamented: “There was hope that the ruble would stabilize in the positive, but this did not happen, so it is necessary to continue to win back,” he explained last year’s unmotivated machines. Another expert echoed him: “If the euro had remained below 70 rubles, then we could have stopped there.”

So what's the problem? The ruble is positive, the euro is below seventy. But there was still no stop. I dare to assure you that it will not exist in the foreseeable future. Don't believe me?

Then listen to another professional. This is what the director of the department told Gazeta.Ru retail sales new cars of the AutoSpetsTsentr Group of Companies Alexey Potapov: “Keep prices down Russian market further is impossible, since the number of cars sold continues to decline, distributors are falling, and the profitability of work in Russia is in question.”

Now, finally, do you understand who is to blame for everything? Of course, we are the ones who maliciously do not buy cars and thereby plunge automakers into colossal losses. And they, the sick ones, kept prices down so much, so they held back... During the crisis, that is, since the beginning of 2014, they raised price tags by a measly 44%. Of course - both sellers and car manufacturers continue to moan in unison - this is not enough to win back the rate of the ruble against the euro. We will simply have to rewrite the price tags again and again, adjusting them to the real exchange rate.

Damn it, even I was moved by inhuman suffering automobile corporations. But the stingy male tear immediately dried up as soon as I gave myself the trouble to understand the true state of affairs.

You won’t believe it, but this is a fact: from January 1, 2014 to January 16, 2017, the European currency rose in price by only 40% - from 45.06 to 63.23 rubles! That is, the car brands have already compensated for the exchange rate difference, and with interest.

But what about the vaunted localization? As of November 2016, only a fifth of the cars came to us from beyond the cordon. The rest was collected here, taking into account the cost of our labor, electricity, rent etc. What does this have to do with talk about correlation with the euro exchange rate, good gentlemen?

Automotive schemers, that is, marketers, have a few more tricks up their sleeve. Thus, the upcoming increase in the price of cars is explained, among other things, by the prohibitive costs of implementing a security system, which has been operational since 2017. Since it is very difficult to determine the impact of this process on the final cost of the car, rest assured that manufacturers will not stop at exaggerating their costs, and they will offer to pay for them to you and me.

Another trick that works almost without fail. The difference in the price of cars sold in Russia and Europe can reach 50%.

Oh how! But if you spend a little time and compare on domestic and, say, German sites, you will find out that the real difference will be about 5%, in as a last resort 10%. Let us note, by the way, that the average German’s salary after taxes is at least three times higher than the Russian one.

MOSCOW, January 10 - RIA Novosti, Sergey Belousov. In January, prices for new cars traditionally went up. AvtoVAZ, BMW and others have already officially announced price increases. big brands. Some brands are trying to take their last financial breath and offer discounts to customers, but the inevitable price increases will catch up with them too. RIA Novosti found out how much the cost of personal transport will increase in 2018.

From Lada to BMW

The Volzhsky plant avoided making changes to price lists for the entire last year, only in the fall increasing the price of almost all trim levels Vesta sedans for nine thousand rubles. However, with the beginning of 2018, it will no longer be possible to buy a Zhiguli on the cheap: on the first working day, the Russian automaker announced an increase in prices for the entire the lineup.

At the beginning of January, almost all AvtoVAZ cars increased in price by 15 thousand rubles. A little less - 10 thousand - will now have to be added for Lada Granta and Kalina, and for SUV Lada 4x4 - eight thousand rubles.

About what's new year BMW will change the price tags on almost all of its cars, German company announced in advance - December 25, 2017. The average cost of Bavarian brand cars increased by 2.5 percent. "Charged" added the most BMW crossovers X5 M and X6 M. The price lists have not changed only for the X2 and X3 crossovers, as well as the M5 and 6 Series GT.

On the same day, Cadillac announced an increase in prices for cars. Russian representative office General Motors. From the New Year to Cadillac models XT5 is asking for 300 thousand rubles more, for Escalade - 400 thousand: their average cost increased by 6-8 percent.

As reported to RIA Novosti by the press service automobile group"Avilon", since 2018 Ford company raised prices for three models: Fiesta - by 17 thousand rubles, EcoSport - by 20 thousand, Ford Kuga- by 35 thousand. Brand Audi The price tags have been rewritten upward for almost the entire line - the average price increase is almost 2 percent. Most of all they threw at the “charged” Audi models Sport (S and RS) - their price has increased by 5-10 percent.

The Mercedes-Benz brand adjusted its price lists upward (plus 2-3 percent). As Avilon noted, customers still have the opportunity to buy cars at 2017 price lists, as well as take advantage of the sales support program for cars in stock.

Those who are looking closely at products will still have time to save Jaguar Land Rover: from February on average the price of a new one will jump by 330 thousand rubles Range Rover, range model Rover Sport will rise in price by 272 thousand, and from the second half of the year the cost of the entire model range of the British concern is expected to increase by about 5-10 percent.

From January 2, Hyundai raised prices Solaris sedans and Creta crossovers for 10 thousand rubles. According to the dealer network, before the New Year the sedan’s price list added the same amount Volkswagen Polo, A Tiguan crossover V Highline configuration the price went up by 20 thousand rubles. The Avilon Group of Companies expects a further increase in prices for cars Volkswagen models by 2-3 percent.

As Alexander Zinoviev, deputy chairman of the board of the AvtoSpetsTsentr group of companies, told RIA Novosti, prices for two Volkswagen models also increased in 2018 - Passat station wagon Variant and Amarok pickup, by about 7 percent.

At the end of last year joint venture GM-AvtoVAZ announced an increase in the price of an SUV from January 1 Chevrolet Niva. All configurations added 10 thousand rubles. At the same time, immediately after the holidays, the plant announced the “On the Street Minus 20” campaign, under which cars produced in 2017 will be sold at a discount of 20 thousand rubles. The discount will end on January 31st.

© Chevrolet

The basic amount increased by 50 thousand euros Bugatti price Chiron - up to 2.45 million euros excluding taxes and other payments. However, the first Russian owner the hypercar had to pay 3.5 million euros for it, and he received the car in Europe, since the Chiron is not certified for Russia (there is no Era-Glonass system). The Avilon company claims that if you buy this car now, you will only be able to get it in the first quarter of 2021.

Depending on the configuration and number of options, Maserati cars have increased in price by 7-10 percent. Fiat and Jeep prices are also expected to increase.

A year earlier

According to the analytical agency Autostat, the largest jump in prices was observed in December 2016: then new cars rose in price by an average of 2.3 percent. In January 2017 - by another 0.9 percent.

Last year, AvtoVAZ rewrote price tags for the entire model range, also on the first working day after the New Year holidays. In less than a week Renault brand released new price lists in which cars became more expensive by 10-30 thousand rubles. The Koreans did not escape this fate Kia bestsellers Rio and Hyundai Solaris, as well as Russian-American Chevrolet SUV Niva. Skoda, Volkswagen, Mazda have raised prices for some models. In January 2017, Toyota added 24-305 thousand rubles to the price tag of almost all models: the record then belonged to the Alphard minivan. In total, from December 15, 2016 to January 15, 2017, car prices in Russia were increased by 25 brands.

What's next?

Experts agree that prices will continue to rise in 2018, despite the stable ruble exchange rate.

"The rise in price of cars this year is inevitable due to the increase recycling fee, and general level inflation,” said Alexander Zinoviev. — First of all, this will affect models with a capacity of over 200 Horse power, so we expect prices to rise for all premium brands."

Earlier, the Ministry of Industry and Trade stated that the indexation of the recycling fee will not affect cars whose production is established in Russia. These factories additional load will be compensated by new program state support for the automobile industry, for which more than 125 billion rubles are allocated per year.

The state will help you save on purchases new car, but not everyone. In 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Trade plans to allocate 16 billion rubles to continue government programs"First Car" incentives (gives a 10 percent discount to those who buy a car for the first time) and " Family car"(10 percent discount for those who have two or more minor children). Judging by the letters from car manufacturers participating in the programs (available to RIA Novosti), the government decided to refuse to increase the maximum cost of a car to 1.5 million rubles - the maximum price of a qualifying vehicle Under the program, the car remained at last year’s level of 1,450,000 rubles. In addition, models produced no earlier than December 2017 in Russia and in the region will be allowed to participate in the program in 2018. mandatory equipped with the Era-Glonass system.

One of the reasons for containing price growth at the beginning of the new year is the strengthening of the ruble.

Russian car dealers So far, they receive virtually no notifications from concerns that they need to rewrite the price tags of the models presented on our market. As Kommersant reports, the current prices for foreign cars are supposedly held back, among other things, by the strengthening of the ruble.

According to representatives dealer centers, in the mass segment of cars prices have remained almost unchanged. Cars Mercedes-Benz brand added about 3% each, Audi – 2.2%. According to their information Volkswagen cost Polo increased by around 3% (depending on the configuration), and Hyundai Solaris rose in price by 30,000 rubles in December. According to the official website, now the basic version of Solaris costs 553,900 rubles including discounts.

Most dealers believe that prices for foreign cars will rise later, after last year's stock is sold out. Thus, according to Alexey Potapov, Sales Director of the Avtospetstsentr Group of Companies, the first wave of price increases should be expected at the beginning of the second quarter, when cars that rolled off the assembly line in 2017 arrive at dealers. They will be sold “at an indexed price.”

The dealer believes that prices will increase by 5-7% depending on the specific brand. Alexey Potapov suggested that the growth will be most noticeable for buyers of cars in the budget and mass segments.

According to VTB Capital analyst Vladimir Bespalov, companies should wait for certainty in demand in the Russian automobile market, since in November 2016 a growth, albeit symbolic, was demonstrated (according to unofficial data, sales in December last year were also were relatively high level). At the same time, January and February are traditionally weak months for car sales, so they “cannot serve as a guide for pricing strategies,” the expert noted.

Earlier, the Kolesa.ru portal reported that. Since the beginning of 2017 basic versions popular Russian cars became more expensive by 2-3%.