Nights of the 2020 in the Russian market will begin to publish the New Year of 2020 in the Russian market, among them the crossovers and SUVs. Let's consider the rating of the leading models of their characteristics.

New Telluride from Kia

Kia Telluride is represented in the form of a seven or eight-month premium-class SUV. For future buyers, he will attract not only the masculine appearance, but also abundance of technology. Previously, they were not used by the manufacturer from South Korea.

TELLURIDE 2020: prestigious and off-road

There was a difficult task before developers of the concern. The usual self-comfort had to be connected with the characteristic features of an SUV and technological stuffing. The basis of Telluride is the Sorento Prime platform. The new Kia SUV 2020 can be called supric, powerful and energetic.

Cool "dad" among crossovers. First test drive

True appointment of telluride - a trip over country roads and off-road. It is convenient to travel to picnics per city.

Allegedly will be offered four configurations. The SUV is furnished in the highest class, has many features of the driver's assistance, including the choice of driving mode, a modern projection display and so on.

Salon of the new crossover from Kia

And from the technical side, the car does not disappoint.

The Korean SUV has a volume trunk at 595 liters, which expands to 1302 liters. Its road clearance reaches 203 mm, such clearance easily will help to overcome the car borders, artificial irregularities.

The exit of the SUV is planned in the middle of 2020. Abroad, the cost of telluride for the base set is 32 thousand dollars, when transferring to our currency is approximately 2.1 million rubles.

New crossovers 2020, expected in Russia

Skoda Karoq

The release of a new car from Skoda is scheduled for the spring of next year. The crossover will come to replace another popular model - Yeti. The compact crossover is not a direct continuation of its model range, because it has a new name, design, interior, and so on.

The technical side of Karoq will delight with its diversity. Auto will have 5 engines to choose a buyer, with two types of drive and three suspension types.

New crossover Skoda Karoq is going to Russia

Almost all power units will be new. In the basic package, the Skoda comes with a modest 1.6-liter gasoline turbo engine, the capacity of which is 183 horsepower, with a torque of 175 nm. Although even he can accelerate to 100 km / h in 11.3 seconds.

An alternative to this power unit will perform a 1.4-liter engine. The front-wheel drive models will receive an eight-step automatic transmission, and the all-wheel drive is a robotic six-speed DSG box. For overclocking, you will need 8.8 seconds.

For now only two modifications of Skoda Crossover 2020: AMBITION and STYLE. Prices for the basic bundle start from 1.5 million rubles.

AMBITION will have heated front seats, rear parking sensors, rain / light sensor, cruise control, LED optics, 6.5-inch media system.

Interior Skoda Karoq

For more information on other configurations, we should expect closer to the car's outlet, then it will be a well-known value of each of them.

Externally on the photo, the new crossover resembles a reduced version of coding with chopped edges that give it some aggressiveness.

The KaroQ interior is minimalistic, but the finishing materials used and their fit is definitely excellent quality. Soft plastic covers most of the cabin, including the central panel.

Hyundai Palisade

New from Hendai will come to replace the old Grand Santa Fe. Hyundai Crossover 2020 is distinguished by modern design and advanced technical stuffing.

New Big Crossover Hyundai Palisade declassified to the premiere

Hyundai Palisade is positioned as a 7-seater or 8-seater, each row of seats has an electric drive, with a good place of place in the trunk (510 liters)

The new crossover is equipped with either a 3.8-liter gasoline engine, the power of which is 295 horsepower, or a 2.2-liter diesel engine, with a power of 202 with a plug-in full drive and an 8-range automatic machine. The gearbox switches using the buttons on the panel.

The car is well adapted to various road surfaces and offers a functional driving mode selection system.

Stylish interior salon

In the salon, a special place occupies a media system. A impressive ten-levy display is highlighted. Among the basic functions responsible for safe riding are also available circular review, driver fatigue control, control of blind zones, parking assistant and so on.

Presumably the release date is scheduled for the beginning of next year. And the cost of Palisade begins from 2 million rubles.

Range Rover Evoque

Premium brand will release the second generation of its popular crossover. Starting price is allegedly worth 2.9 million rubles.

The perfect combination of technology and luxury

In the restyled version of the car there are a number of changes, for example:

• increase the road lumen by 21 millimeters;
• adding 21-inch discs;
• decimaty touchscreen display.

The salon became more spacious, and the trunk increased its sizes by 10%, and now buyers have a 591 liter of free cargo.

Spacious and comfortable salon

In Russia, several engine options will be available, both gasoline for 200, 249 and 300 horsepower, and diesel 150 and 180 horses.

All models are exclusively all-wheel drive, the machine will work on an upgraded 9-band "machine" ZF. The exit of the crossover is scheduled for the first half of 2020.

Haval F7.

The Chinese segment of the car does not cease to amaze. This also applies to the new crossover, which will be collected under Tula. It is distinguished by solid dimensions.

Haval F7.

There is a 5-seater layout in the cabin, and the trunk boasts its size of 660 liters, which is undoubtedly more average for this class car.

The manufacturer expects to conquer buyers automatically customizable cruise control and braking systems, the ability to hold the movement strip and scanning blind zones. Also in the battery packs will provide a parking electronic brake, a digital dashboard and so on.

Haval F7x: Economy ticket to Premium Class

The output of the medium-sized car is planned in the second quarter of 2020, the approximate value of the basic configuration will be 1.2 million rubles.

Apparently, in the Russian market in 2020 year, competition of SUVs will be especially acute. There are many restyled versions of famous brands, as well as completely new models. Let's look at the most anticipated of them!

Chinese novelties, as well as electrocars and hybrid cars, we do not turn on the review.

Restyled models 2020

BMW x6.

Among the restyled versions of crossovers in 2020 most interesting upgraded "BMW X6". The main differences of the exterior became a merchant roof, hexagonal LEDs of head light, huge air intakes.

Video Review BMW X6 2020:

Under the hood of the novelties, buyers of the basic version will find six-cylinder gasoline engine (340 hp). In addition to the basic motor, the crossover will be equipped with a turbocharged "Eight" (462 hp), two diesels (265, 400 hp). All versions are equipped with an eight-step automatic transmission. The luxurious salon of the most expected novelties is equipped:

• heated passenger chairs;
• three-zone climate control;
• circular viewing camcorders;
• the newest media system.

First sales in Russia BMW x6. (not official dealers) will begin in November - December of this year. Machines ordered by buyers are already on the way. The basic value of the novelty will not be lower than the European price in $70 000 . For top packages, you need to expect prices at the level 8,000,000 - 9,000,000 rubles.

Volkswagen Teramont X.

Debit a restyled new product took place on the auto show in Shanghai And surprised visitors. Restylangs, as a rule, increase the car. Designers "Volkswagen", On the contrary, the dimensions of the new German crossover decreased. New Volkswagen Teramont received the index "x", merchant body, five-seater salon. The body has decreased in length (13 cm) and height (50 mm).

Video Temogram:

The rest of the SUV has not changed. The car is equipped with two engines (2,0L, 220 horsepower, 3,6L, 280 horsepower)plugged with full drive, automatic box (8 steps). The classic interior of the salon is characterized by a three-spoke multi-steering wheel, a multimedia system (12.3 inches display), numerous security assistants.

Concern VW dealers of Russia selling a new product yet, the restyling version is intended to the Chinese market. Independent dealers began to buy crossovers from European vendors, where the start of sales of new items has already taken place. It is expected that the price of a reduced version will be lower than that of the basic crossover, which is sold for 2 600 000 - 3 000 000 rubles.

Range Rover Evoque

Restalling version of a small crossover Evoque You can consider the next generation of the model, since the new PTA platform is used. Outside the crossover, characterized by an angular British style, has changed little. Development of new technical solutions to the concern Land Rover. It cost about a billion pounds. For Russian sales it is planned to complete the machine 4 engines - two gasoline (200, 249 horsepower), two diesel engines (150, 180 horsepower).

Video Review:

The British Parqueturience cannot be called a full-fledged SUV, but it is equipped with a plug-in full-wheel drive. The luxurious interior of the top package is characterized by original options. Among them are allocated:

• 14 positions of electrically regulating front armchairs;
• front, rear parking sensors;
• full package of automatic parking;
• analog dials;
• decimaty touchscreen display.

On the roads of Russia, the emergence of new items is planned in the spring of next year. Official prices are not named, the estimated cost of the English novelty (basic version) will be about three million rubles.

Expected novelties in 2020

Mercedes GLB: new class of Mercedes-Benz model line

Mercedes GLB belongs to the most anticipated crossovers in Russiashown by the automaker on the Shanghai Auto Show. Small-sized crossover 2020. Model year will take an intermediate niche between classes GLA and GLC.. Despite the modest sizes, the exterior of the German SUV looks aggressively, dynamically. Ahead of the original shape, huge air intakes, oblique rectangular headlights are allocated (equipped with LED running lights). The profile of the machine is highlighted by the door emitting, which gives the car is a fried, sporty look.

In Russia, the car will appear with a motor line of four engines, although European sales provide six engines. Dealers of Russia The model will begin to sell with basic petrol 1,3l turbo video (163 horsepower), robotic seven-step transmissia. The remaining two-liter engines are one gasoline (224 horsepower), two diesel engines (150, 190 hp) Completed with an eight-step "machine".

Seven premium salon is equipped:

• comfortable seats (pronounced lateral support, genuine leather);
• electric drives adjustment seats;
• heated, ventilation of all places;
• trim carbon, tree;
• media system (navigator, voice commands).

Official dealers of Russia The appearance of Mercedes GLB in winter (January-February) 2020. The approximate value of the basic version of the novelty will be 2500,000 - 2650000 rubles

Skoda Kamiq: Little Crossover

Among the expected budget crossovers In Russia, the first place can be put Czech.

The stylish exterior of the new front-wheel drive crossover is different:

• embossed hood;
• chrome-plated lining of the lattice of the falseradiator;
• the original shape of the headlight block headlight;
• narrow side windshield racks (improved driver overview);
• plastic body kit bottom;
• small "anti-cycle" fifth doors.

The budget interior does not shine luxury, decorated with high-quality fabrics and plastics. The only gasoline engine (1,6L, 90 horsepower) is economical, fuel consumption is 5.9 liters (mixed cycle).

In Russia, the emergence of novelties is expected in spring, although official information from the Skoda plants, the VW concern has not yet been received. Judging by the Chinese sales, the price range will vary from 700 to 950 thousand rubles.

Subaru Ascent: Trebeks successor

Among the innovations of crossovers, it is impossible to go around the new model of the famous Japanese automaker. Although the previous flagship, "Subaru Treibek", consider the commercial failure of the manufacturer, the Japanese concern is obliged to attend among large SUVs.

For model Subaru Ascent. Designers developed one powerful opposite engine operating on gasoline (2,4L, 260 horsepower). Engine design uses a two-way turbocharger, direct fuel injection. Permanent four-wheel drive is controlled by a wedge variator, imitating the switching of eight velocities.

"Subaru" Always reproached for the asceticism of the cabin. To fix this drawback, for Subaru Ascent, there are four options for configuration.

Top equipment "Touring" is equipped:

• genuine brown leather;
• camcorder (overview 180 degrees);
• ventilation, heated front seats;
• panoramic roof;
• three-zone climate control;
• high-quality media system.

For Salon Subaru Ascent. There are arrangements of five, seven, eight places. In Russia, Ashvent is not yet for sale, as it is intended for sales in the North American market. According to the experience of the Russian market, it is clear that independent dealers (especially in the Far East) will not be attended by a stylish, powerful model and order cars in Japan. Therefore, the start of sales of new items can be predicted for the spring of next year. In the US, Subaru Ascent is sold for $ 32,000 - $ 54,000. Therefore, you need to expect prices at the level 2 400 000 - 4 000 000 rubles.

Hyundai Palisade: Heir "Santa Fe"

The flagship of South Korean autocontraser is positioned by the automaker as a successor to an SUV "Santa Fe", deserved Russian popularity. The full-sized SUV is distinguished by brutal, aggressive design exterior, powerful gasoline engines. Impressive characteristics of basic motor (volume 2,2L, power 190 "horses") and top engine - 3,3L volume, 330 horsepower power.

Spacious premium versions equipped:

• leather finish of combined colors;
• three-spoke steering wheel;
• stealless switches;
• analog dial-up dials;
• full package of electronic assistants;
• folding third chairs;
• a touchscreen media system (10.25 inches screen);
• passenger microphones (allow us to talk without increasing voice);

Start sales Brand representatives will be announced after the official Russian presentation of the crossover. Supporting prices will be 2,200,000 - 2700,000 rubles.

Haval F7x: Youth Cross Coupe

Among new Chinese crossovers 2020 In the first place is a cross-coupe Haval F7x.. Chinese automaker, coming out for the first place of the national rating, announced the intentions to conquer the Russian market. The older brother of the youth version, haval F7 crossover, sold on the Russian market, has established itself as a reliable car.

The distinctive features of the novelty include:

• stylish European exterior;
• two turbocharged engines operating on gasoline (150, 190 hp);
• dracting motors under Russian tax requirements;
• seven-step robotic gearbox;
• small clearance (170 mm);
• sport interior.

Serial Release of New Cross Coupe should be engaged in the company's Tula factory Haval. From the launch of production, the time of the appearance of new items in the dealer centers of Russia depends. Judging by the cost of Chinese sales, the starting price of the novelty will be at least 1,600,000 rubles.

Chery Tiggo 8: New Design, European Standards

Brand "Cherry" Positioning model Chery Tiggo 8 As the flagship of the model range of SUVs. The exterior of the new seventeal crossover is absolutely original. Machinery sport design developers use little shiny chrome moldings that distinguish asian style. The stylish exterior is highlighted by a dynamic silhouette, a raised glazing line, a two-section lattice of the falseradiator, a bulk front bumper, narrow LED "fonts", raised rear breath.

The budget direction of the crossover is reflected in the front-wheel drive transmission, a short line of engines. Not impressive technical characteristics of basic gasoline engine (2,0L, 122 hp), turbocharged motor (1,5L, 147 hp). Version S. turbo engine 1.6 TGDI (197 hp) Abroad are not exported yet.

The top versions salon "Tiggo 8" is equipped with European standards, including:

• three displays (dashboard, climate installation, media system);
• two-zone climate control;
• circular video review;
• non-contact trunk lock;
• monitoring blind zones;
• leather upholstery of sports chairs;
• panoramic roof.

Russian dealers official start of sales Chery Tiggo 8. Not yet announced. Knowing the efficiency of Chinese management, it is necessary to expect a novelty no later than spring. Ukrainian, Belarusian dealers "Chery" Sales of "Tiggo 8" have already begun. As for prices, the Russian equivalent of Chinese cost varies from 950 000 rubles (for a five-seater version with a manual box) to 1 350 000 - 2 000 000 rubles For top configuration.

Geely FY11: style leader

The new model of the brand "Gili", as Chinese experts believe, one of the best crossovers 2020 Model year on design.

The advantages of the model include:

• modern exterior (designed under the champion of Peter Horbury);
• modular platform (total with Volvo XC40.);
• development of a hybrid version;
• electronics saturation.

Exterior "FY11" It is highlighted by the aerodynamic form of the front wings, the reliefs of the hood, highly raised by the front bumper, merchant linen of the roof. The export of the machine is equipped with one engine (1,5L, 177 hp), Separate "robot".

Interesting extraordinary options for the middle configuration of the crossover:

• panoramic hatch;
• leather finish;
• two-zone climate control;
• electrical adjustments, heated seats;

Many motorists remember times when January was almost the best month to buy a new car. By this time, the cars of the new model year did not have time to get to dealers, and in warehouses last year's copies remained, for which large discounts were given - only because they became one year older.

But now a lot has changed, and wait for a new year to change its "iron horse", there is no point in writing, writes "".

Remember what happened in 2014? Then the ruble collapsed twice as much as the dollar and the euro, which, naturally, led to a widespread price increase. But the auto-abnormarers could not also scream the cost of their goods - and in order not to shock the people, were forced to do it gradually.

It is almost every month (or even about it) the cars would be ruling for several dozen or even hundreds of thousand rubles, slowly eliminating the imbalance between ruble and currency prices.

And although now this difference has already been eliminated, the loss of auto companies over the past years is not fully compensated. Therefore, they do not miss every convenient occasion to make their cars a bit more expensive.

By the way, Volvo, BMW, Chery have already announced the rise in prices from the new year. The remaining automakers are still careful with statements. But there are enough reasons for rising prices and without it. Recall that from January 1, 2020, the recycling rates increase in Russia - on average by about 111%.

It should be directly to hit only on imported cars, because automakers receive automakers from the state of the subsidy. But when prices for foreign cars will go up, the company under the shanks will begin to rewrite the price lists and on local models - subsidies subsidies, but the price balance in dollar equivalent needs to be preserved.

In addition, since March 2020, the so-called energy efficiency labels are introduced in Russia, which will indicate data on the consumption of car fuel and the level of harmful emissions - something similar we already see on household appliances. And although the Ministry of Industry is assures that their implementation will not affect the cost of cars, it is impossible to exclude it yet.

In addition to the "disposable" reasons for the increase in prices, they will traditionally affect inflation, which is officially about 4% per year. Analysts of the Association "Russian Car Dealers" (Road) expect that, taking into account all factors, cars will rise in price by an average of 5%. But, as before, this growth will not be simultaneous - it stretches for the whole year.

In other words, if you have the opportunity to buy a car now - you should not hesitate with this. Cheaper cars will not definitely not.

Officially inflation in 2019-2020 will be about 4%. But cars have already risen by 10% in the current year, and will rise in price as in the following. We asked experts the car market, why this happens (and what's the entry of Russia to the WTO).

The last 5 years were not the most simple for the country, the same they were for the automotive market. According to the Avtostat agency, from 2014 to 2019, the cost of new cars in Russia increased by 76%. Considering that the ruble was devalued by about 100%, it can be understood how depends on the market from the oscillations of the situation (and as far as the low localization of production in Russia).

Rising prices for cars was celebrated all year, he continues and now. According to generalized data, for the first 10 months, the rise in prices for cars amounted to 9-10%, which is 2-3 times higher than official inflation. And dealers still stretched price increase so as not to scare away buyers.

Only in recent months, the models of almost all brands - and "foreign" (even Russian assembly) Hyundai, and completely domestic UAZ, prices for AvtoVAZ products were raised several times.

It is not left unnoticed by consumers - as of October 2019 sales year fell by 5.2%.

Because the secondary market is designed so that it follows prices for new cars, the car with mileage also began to rise. Only for the third quarter, prices rose by 1.4%, while in the budget B-class they rose by more than 11%.

Track prices in the secondary market is not so easy - most transactions take place between two individuals, and on sales through dealers accounts for only about 15% of sales (and then thanks to Trade-IN discounts). As of November 2019, Used car with one owner cost 575 thousand rublesAnd if the owners were three or more - only 216 thousand rubles.

Most often, AvtoVAZ products are sold in the secondary market - only in one October 131 thousand they were sold, despite the fact that the annual volume of the production at the plant in Togliatti is about 500 thousand cars.

The secondary market continues to play an important role in continuing falling real incomes of the populationwhich continues is not the first year. Seeing the 10% price increase, many are ready to purchase a used car in return for a new one, besides often and configurations in the secondary market for the same money will be better.

But besides the income of the population, the state of affairs in the automotive market is determined by other features, which will be discussed on.

What to expect from 2020

Credit programs

On credit in Russia is sold a little less than half of all new cars - for the first 9 months of 2019 it was 45,7 %. On the one hand, the domestic car in Russia can be bought in less than half a million rubles, and on the other, it is still not affordable to the overwhelming majority of Russians.

But one of the main drivers of car sales growth has become special preferential programs "First car" and "Family car"that suggest such conditions:

• discount on a car in the amount of 10%;
• mandatory condition - buying on credit;
• cost - up to 1 million rubles;
• mandatory Russian production.

These programs are uniquely designed for avtoVAZ products, especially since the program manufacturers have some additional requirements for the level of production localization.

Programs have become very popular: so much that the money allocated by the Ministry of Industry Money on subsidies ends several months after the start of the programs.

In 2019, they were extended in summer after suspending, since 2020, programs will also act.

However, from the point of view of prices, preferential programs are unlikely to strongly affect the prices, a specialist in the field of car selection Oleg Stepanov. It indicates that the availability of government programs allows car dealers not to reduce prices - machines and so available:

These measures allow you to increase sales, but weakly influence prices. An additional component of sales is the availability of lending. Up to 40% of cars are sold with a loan, proposals from banks are becoming more interesting due to a decrease in the accounting rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. State programs and low rates on the car loan on one side makes the car more affordable, on the other you allow the car dealers not to reduce the price.

In fact, the programs allow car owners to compensate part of the costs when buying a car on credit - a discount of 60-70 thousand rubles usually just corresponds to the cost of insurance (without which the bank will not give out a loan).

Nevertheless, the programs are extremely relevant and in demand, especially in the Far East, where the discount is already 25% - in order to reduce the dependence of the region from the flow of cars from Korea and Japan.

Recycling collection

Another component of the price of cars is a utilization collection. He was introduced back in 2012, when Russia, having joined the WTO, it was necessary to reduce import duties into different groups of goods. Until 2014, the collection was paid only by importers of cars, and now the manufacturers are also paid.

From January 1, 2020, the recycling collection will be more - Its size, depending on the volume of the engine, will increase from 46 to 145%.

Different estimates give a different forecast for the increase in the cost of cars due to an increase in the recycling collection. So, analyst investment company Oleg Bogdanov It assesses the effect of increasing the recycling collection quite seriously - according to him, the increase in the cost of cars can reach 100 thousand rubles:

The indexation of the recycling collection will lead to the fact that the cost of vehicles will change in January 2020. The markup of the manufacturer to the most popular models, for example, Volkswagen Polo or Hyundai Solaris will be on average 50 thousand rubles. Major enthusias themselves may face even greater increase in cost, taking into account the purchase in the dealer salon: the price tags of mass models will add from 60 thousand rubles, and the rise in price of grades of the premium segment may exceed 100 thousand rubles

The indexation of the recycling collection is intended to compensate for the loss of the budget from the reduction of customs duties on vehicles under arrangements with the World Trade Organization.

At the official level, as always, the price estimates are very moderate. Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov says that in the end, the share of recycling fee in the cost of the car there will be no more than 1.5-2%.

Approximately the same estimates give Oleg Stepanov - if you consider, on average, the two-time growth of the very collection and its share, the increase in prices due to it will not be serious:

Given this increase, the price of cars will grow by different estimates by 2-4%. The first months of each sale of the car are lowered and to maintain sales, many car dealers launch discounts to sell the remnants of the previous year's cars.

Oleg Stepanov, head of the company "Avtovist"

This is the second in recent years to increase the recycling collection. And this time, obviously without rising prices for cars will not do without.

Special investment contracts

Russia's accession to the WTO caused not only the introduction of recycling collection. Now, due to the more open market, the state helps domestic automakers to compete with imports. And the main tool in this is special investment contracts.

Strictly speaking, specialTextContrak. (or the speaker) is an agreement in which the obligations of both parties are prescribed:

• automaker - carry out some investment and achieve a certain indicator (usually this level of production localization);
• states do not worsen tax legislation and allocate subsidies.

In fact, it can be argued that no automakers in Russia not able to survive - He just will not be able to compete with those who have a speaker.

In the summer of this year, the Ministry of Promtorg approved applications for 5 spike - they were concluded with Volkswagen, Peugeot-Citroen, Volvo Trucks, GM-AvtoVAZ (manufacturer of Chevrolet-Niva) and the Avtotor plant from Kaliningrad. AvtoVAZ, UAZ and GAZ concluded a spike earlier, and the new Haval plant in the Tula region received a spique a little later.

5 manufacturers with whom the Speaker concluded in the summer, pledged to carry out investments by 74.5 billion rubles, and the state in return will provide them with access to industries - this is actually recycling compensation.

In fact, the automaker promises to invest tens of billions of rubles in return for benefits that can be similar in size. As a result, precisely because of the spikes, the price may not grow, Oleg Stepanov believes:

In the summer of 2019, special investment contracts were concluded between automakers and the Ministry of Industry. Automakers are required to invest in innovation and development of production in exchange for a constant tax regime (at the beginning of 2019, the change in VAT by 2% immediately increased the cost of cars for the same 2%). Great influence these agreements on the price of cars will not.

Oleg Stepanov, head of the company "Avtovist"

At least a mutually beneficial character of the back and does not imply a sharp increase in prices, fears still remain. Oleg Bogdanov says after signing the speaker automakers lose compensation for customs duties For the importation of components - and this will affect prices:

From the next year, compensation for automotive conservations will be canceled compensation for the importation of components (previously privileges operated for enterprises that signed special investment contracts). At the end of September of this year, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said this at the end of September of this year. According to him, in the draft budget for 2020-2022, revenues from the respective payments are already taken into account. The liquidation of benefits is capable of hitting all participants in the domestic market, but the manufacturers of premium stamps with a high level of localization will suffer stronger than others. This is primarily about BMW and Genesis brand cars, the assembly of which is conducted at Avtotor enterprise in Kaliningrad. The elimination of compensation on autocomponents can lead to a rise in price of cars at least 3-4%.

Leading analyst QBF Oleg Bogdanov

Accordingly, Russian government leaves manufacturers a choice - Or in line in localization of production and save on the import components, or pay fees without any compensation.

Secondary market: new technical inspection rules

The secondary market, as mentioned above, in many respects follows new cars. At the same time, sales in 2020 is predicted at the level of the current year - despite the fact that new cars will be sold less.

The situation with the income of the population forces car owners to ride on old cars: according to the middle of 2019 the average lifetime of the car reaches 75 months - New cars are becoming more expensive, so people refuse them.

However, the secondary market is heterogeneous, says Oleg Stepanov. It gives an example - some cars with mileage practically do not lose cost compared to new (for example, Toyota Camry), while others can lose 30% and more, literally leaving the car dealership (for example, Range Rover).

As for prices for used cars, the head of the car project projects Konstantin Avakyan He says that you need to focus on the prices of new cars, taking into account the backlog of several months. At the same time, the mass segment is becoming stronger than:

Raising prices will affect the car market with mileage. In 2019, the vehicles of this segment have already risen more than 4% compared with the annual limitation indicator, the cost will grow in 2020 - by about 7.2% for the car segment and 4.5% for the premium cars. . The mass appearance on the secondary market for expensive cars by age up to 5 years, increased demand in this segment, increased and the cost of these models.

Project Manager for Business Process Processes Autosoppens Center Konstantin Avakyan

For owners of used cars in 2020, something important will happen: in the summer they come into force new rules for passage of technical inspectionsnecessary for the execution of the OSAGA policy (without which movement on the car is fraught with a fine of 800 rubles).

In the first 3 years, the inspection does not need to pass, so the innovation concerns not new car owners (and especially cars over 7 years old).

New rules suggest that the car at the inspection station will take pictures - Before the start of inspection and in the process, and the photos must have a geometry to eliminate the "virtual" passage of vehicle inspection.

Such rules, as well as an increase in fines for the "non-secrecy" passage of vehicle inspection unambiguously make the car ownership more expensive, but at the cost of the car, it is unlikely, Oleg Stepanov said:

In addition to changes in prices for cars in 2020, there will be changes in prices for the policy of CTP, for some regions and categories of drivers policies will be more expensive for some cheaper. The increase in fines for the design of the diagnostic card without real technical inspection will also make the ownership of the car more expensive pleasure. But these changes are unlikely to force car enthusiasts to massively sell cars, and therefore, the influence on prices will not.

Oleg Stepanov, head of the company "Avtovist"

The passage of technical inspection according to the new rules will be about 1000 rubles more expensive, says Konstantin Avakyan, adding how will affect only the costs of maintenance transport.

However, it can be said that this, as well as the development of public transport and creepers, reduces the popularity of ownership of personal transport, which means it reduces the demand for cars.

What will in the end be with prices, and when to buy a car?

The increase in cars is not always connected with some global processes and legislative innovations. Often it affects the policy of automakers: for example, when updating the model range at the beginning of the year, prices for new models are becoming higher than last year.

In addition, there is also the effect of inflation, and the revaluation of the cost of cars at the beginning of the year can add to their prices 2-3% already in January New Year, notes Oleg Bogdanov. But at the same time, due to the not very high purchasing power of Russians, dealers usually do not allow a sharp rise in prices, adds an expert.

However, in the end, the increase in prices in 2020 should not be so significant as it happened at the beginning of this year, when the VAT rate was raised, the director of the company-Avtodiler Denis Petrunin:

Next year is expected to rise in prices for new cars associated with an increase in utilization and inflation. At the same time, the rise in prices will not be so significant, as last year due to increasing VAT, and will be 5-10% depending on the brand. The illiquid estones will begin to be soldered in December and in January this trend will traditionally continue. At the same time, large discounts on cars are not worth waiting for cars, discounts will not be significant or will not be at all.

Denis Petrunin, General Director of the Avtospets Center

The same height is up to 10% - Konstantin Avakyan predicts, connecting it with an increase in recycling rates.

Thus, cars for the second year in a row will go up 2-3 times faster than inflation. Given that the incomes of the population in recent years grow and slower, every year gives an average Russian from buying a car.

Respectively, postpone the purchase at the moment there is no point - cheaper cars will not be, prerequisites for sharp increase in income is also not. Rates on car loans already take into account the decline in key rates to 6%, so it will be difficult to reduce them further.

Minpromtorg presented the concept of differentiation of industrial subsidies, which de facto compensate for the utilization of localized concerns and ensure profitability of production. Officials softened their position in terms of localization situation regarding the situation of weekly limitations: now about 2025 cars of Russian concerns will receive complete compensation even with the current localization. Foreign concerns will lose part of the funds from next year, which will entail rise to prices for cars and revising business plans.

"Kommersant" familiarized himself with the concept of differentiation of payments by autoconecerts of industrial subsidies. As I wrote to "Kommersant" on December 16, in 2020, 50% of compensation is paid only for the presence of a spike, the rest is in accordance with the actual localization (considered on the scoring system). Since 2021, 75% of compensation will be paid on actual location, from 2022 - 100%. At the same time, the concept specifies that the calculation of points will go for each produced car - this is, according to sources "Kommersant", the old idea of \u200b\u200bthe Deputy Head of the Ministry of Industry and Communist Party of Alexander Morozov.

The source "Kommersant" says that it is likely that it is about the scheme when the concern manually records the number of points for each car in an electronic PTS, and the ministry can selectively conduct a check.

The number of points that must be gained to obtain 100% compensation, within the framework of the concept, was adjusted with the initially stated 4 thousand. Now the target indicator in the passenger segment begins with 1.5 thousand pointsThey need to be scored for full compensation in 2020-2021. Next, the threshold increases to 2 thousand points in 2022, almost 2.6 thousand- in 2023 and 3.7 thousand- in 2025-2026. At the same time, the concept provides that Lada Vesta. With automatic transmission already gains 3.3 thousand points, but Hyundai Solaris. - 1.4 thousand points. By 2028, in the passenger segment you need to score 5.4 thousand points. Welding and painting (the minimum conditions on which the spike consisted in the passenger segment) give automakers only 900 points.

In fact, now Russian production in the coming years may not deepen localization, sources "Kommersant" say, and foreign concerns will begin to lose part of compensation since 2020

True, in the first years the damage will not be so big, since part of the money will be guaranteed by the presence of a speaker.

The autocontracens went to the signing of the Speak in order to receive industrial subsidies for 200 billion rubles. in year. The government until recently promised to preserve promsubsidia for all players, but after the visit of President Vladimir Putin to KAMAZ on December 13, the position changed dramatically. So far, it is not clear where the state will send additional income from the subtill, which will not be returned to concerns.

In Toyota "Kommersant" they said that the cardinal change of the concept of payments of industries was unexpected for the concern and "contradicts what was previously discussed and announced." "Differentiation of the volume of subsidies aimed at compensation for the utilist will completely change the economic conditions of road business in Russia and will seriously affect the local production of Toyota," the company believes in the company, calling the price increases inevitable countermeasures in the short term in the event of such a decision approval.

"In the long run, we will be forced to revise our business plans in Russia," conclude in Toyota.

AvtoVAZ, on the contrary, supports differentiation depending on the existing level of localization, "but only with the included realistic parameters". Nissan (enters the AvtoVAZ Renault-Nissan Alliance) They say that they advocate the idea of \u200b\u200b"reasonable" differentiation, which should encourage the investment of automakers in local production. The number of points that are gaining Nissan cars in the concern is not called, but noted that due to a significant increase in localization requirements, many automakers will be forced to revise their plans and cancel or significantly postpone the launch of new models in the market.

Nissan also noticed that locally produce cars in several segments and the level of localization of cars in the mass segment are unattainable for more expensive and high-tech models due to their minor volumes.

Vladimir Bespalov from VTB Capital believes that localization should be stimulated at the expense of other methods, and not by removing the utilization funds, which was originally a barrier for imports. He notes that there is now a change in the rules in the course of the game and in the near future such steps can lead to a reduction in model rows due to less localized models.

Olga Nikitin

How many points are needed to fully compensate for the scourge in the comontrase

According to the concept of differentiation of industrial subsidies in the auto industry, in 2020-2021 producers of light commercial vehicles (LCV) to obtain complete compensations of the subtill, you must dial 1.5 thousand points. At the same time, it is indicated that now Ford Transit (Ford Sollers JV is issued, controlled by Sollers Vadim Schvetsov) is gaining almost 1.6 thousand points. In 2022, 2 thousand points should be gained in the LCV segment, in 2023-2034 - 2.5 thousand points. 2.4 thousand points is now gaining a Gazelle NEXT Diesel, manufactured by the Oleg Deripasky Group (gas takes the greatest share in the LCV market). In 2028, 5.1 thousand points want from concerns.

In the segment of trucks, the scores are distributed in the same way. At the same time, the new model "KAMAZ" K5 is already typing 2.9 thousand points, and Mercedes-Benz Actros (the JV "Daimler KAMAZ") - 1.5 thousand points.

For buses, the minimum plank for access to complete compensation for the utilist is also 1.5 thousand points in 2020-2021. In 2022, it is necessary to gain 2 thousand points, in 2023-2024 - 2.3 thousand points, in 2025-2026 - 3 thousand points. Now the city's low-voltage bus LIAZ-5292 (enters the gas group) is gaining 1.7 thousand points, NEFAZ-5299 (KAMAZ) - 2.5 thousand points.